LNG

Financial close on US LNG export projects could be at risk by a stable peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, analysts warn. Europe would subsequently accommodate more Russian pipeline gas of up to 50 bcm per year, while the lifting of sanctions on Russian LNG would raise exports to about 12 mtpa – undermining the economics of US LNG.

Bearish shoulder-season fundamentals have made prompt gas prices at Henry Hub fall to their lowest level in five months, at just above $3/MMBtu. Appalachia production stayed robust, despite seasonal maintenance, while Haynesville basin output is set to rise by 1 bcf/d year-on-year, weighing on prompt prices.

Fundamentals are largely influencing price discovery at Henry Hub, the most liquid US gas trading point. Modelling by Energy Aspects indicates that gas production in the Lower 48 United States exceeded 107 bcf/d over the final few days of April, with gas flows from the Appalachia Basin remaining strong despite maintenance activities and lower regional consumption.

Appalachia production notched up 0.3 bcf/d and average 34 bcf/d, which helped offset the decline associated gas production from the Permian Basin, caused by beginning maintenance on the Permian Highway pipeline reduced flows by 0.9 bcf/d until the start of this week.

Profitable regional economics — despite Henry Hub’s recent selloff — has led to robust Appalachia production in March and April. According to US government figures, regional flows averaged 33.5 bcf/d in March and 33.9 bcf/d in April, up from 32.8 bcf/d over the previous two months.

aintenance works since early March were seen to have minimal effect on flows.

Appalachia gas volumes, in fact, reached a higher baseline and higher flows, analysts pointed out. The latest surge in production comes from MarkWest Liberty Midstream and DT Midstream, as per pipeline data.

Energy Aspect’s fundamental outlook for the remainder of the shoulder season is for the year-on-year storage gap to close considerably in the second quarter of 2025, with an estimated injection of 342 bcf for April and 438 bcf for May. Rising upstream gas supply would increase Lower 48 storage levels to about 2.60 trillion cubic feet, still 284 bcf lower y/y.

Haynesville flows stay tepid

Gas flows from the Haynesville basin, in contrast, stay subdued as producers were cautiously slow to respond to higher price at the start of the year. As of 17 April, the Haynesville rig count stands at 31 rigs, three rigs lower year-on-year.

Energy Aspects anticipates a modest increase in rig activity by the third quarter of 2025, averaging 33 rigs, two rigs higher quarter-on-quarter. This expectation is based on recent producer guidance indicating production growth for winter 2025–26 to support weather-induced demand and LNG feedgas expansion. Core Haynesville activity in Louisiana will likely contribute most of this growth, reaching 27 rigs by December, nine rigs higher than current levels.

Upstream investment drives further growth: Comstock announced plans in its Q4-24 earnings call to spend $130–150 million on Western Haynesville infrastructure in 2025. Funding will come from their partner, Quantum Capital Solutions. Comstock said it plans to operate four rigs in Western Haynesville in 2025 on average and intends to drill 20 further wells in the near-term future.

Aethon Energy, another major producer in Western Haynesville, announced earlier this year it would need Henry Hub prices to reach $5/MMBtu to incentivise investment to grow output. Analysts estimate the company’s rig count in Texas Haynesville will reach seven rigs by December, six rigs below current levels.

LNG export exposure

Latest US government data indicates Western Haynesville production reached 0.71 bcf/d in February, with Comstock averaging 0.32 bcf/d (45 percent of sub-basin production). Currently, Haynesville's production averages 11.5 bcf/d month-to-date, 0.1 bcf/d lower month-on-month.

“Incremental production from new activity remains elusive due to producer discipline,” analysts commented.

Expand Energy announced estimates that its Q1 25 Haynesville production will average 2.6 bcf/d, some 0.2 bcf/d higher quarter-on-quarter, while operating seven regional rigs, one less than the first quarter. The company’s Haynes-ville portfolio has approximately 2 bcf/d of exposure to LNG export facilities, with an additional 2.5 bcf/d in deliverability expected by the end of 2025, including 1 bcf/d of Gillis volumes that will come to market via the new NG3 pipeline.  

U.S pipeline operator William has commissioned two Transco projects – the Southeast Energy Connector in Alabama and the Texas to Louisiana Energy Pathway along the Gulf Coast. The fully contracted expansions help deliver additional volumes to LNG exports facilities along the Gulf Coast.

Production in the Permian Shale, one of the largest unconventional oil and gas plays in the United States, is forecast to rise as capacities at Matterhorn Express ramp up. The nameplate capacity of the interstate pipeline is currently 2.0 bcf/d — some 0.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) below its design capacity, which can be achieved through additional compression.

A combined-cycle power plant with over 1,440 MW capacity will energise the proposed Calcasieu Pass 2 LNG terminal with its 36 liquefaction trains. Venture Global just got approval to export natural gas from the so-called CP2 facility, the fifth such approval granted since the Trump administration ended a permitting pause.

Australia-based Worley has been selected as EPC contractor which is working under a limited notice to proceed. Venture Global did not disclose an estimated cost for the project, but company executives said earlier some $4 billion were spent on construction, engineering and design work through the end of 2024.

Progressing towards FID

The process towards a final investment decision (FID) was initiated in late March, and Venture Global stressed it has already firm offtake agreements in place with ExxonMobil and Chevron, among others. Apart from the two US oil majors, Phase 1 of Calcasieu Pass also has firm offtake agreements with New Fortress Energy, JERA, China Gas, Inpex, SEFE and EnBW.

Situated Louisiana’s Cameron Parish some 50 miles south of Lake Charles, Calcasieu Pass LNG project consists of a modular, mid-scale configuration and is expected to produce 10 million tons per annum of LNG once fully commissioned.

In February, Venture Global said the first phase of its Calcasieu Pass LNG facility in Louisiana would start commercial operations on 15 April 2025, but the timeline has slipped slightly. The month of April had previously been highlighted by Edison as the earliest time given by Venture Global to its long-term customers.

The official start will mean the facility’s tolling partners will finally be able to lift cargoes on their own accounts almost three years after the 10 mtpa liquefaction plant began LNG shipments.

The developer had faced arbitration and regulatory complaints from major energy companies, including bp, over alleged delayed long-term deliveries as it pursued higher-revenue spot market sales. Venture Global maintained that the plant was not yet commercially operational and that these sales did therefore not violate its contractual obligations. 

US infrastructure investment firm Stonepeak has agreed to acquire a 40 percent shareholding in Woodside Energy’s Louisiana LNG export project and contribute $5.7 billion towards the project’s capital expenditure. Woodside CEO Meg O’Neill called the transaction a material step towards readiness for FID.

The US Maritime Administration (MARAD) has issued a license to allow Delfin LNG to own, construct, operate, and eventually decommission an LNG export deepwater port off the US Gulf coast.

• March-April exports amounted to 20.18mmt • Up by 1.99mmt (11pct) from February-March period • Shipments up by 3.73mmt (23pct) over period year-on-year • Avg. US LNG capacity utilisation at 112pct for the report period 

Period between 1 March 2025 and 30 April 2025, inclusively.

Elba Island LNG

Elba Island LNG produced at annualised nameplate capacity utilisation of 77pct and exported a total of four cargoes amounting to 0.32mmt during the report period spanning March and April. This was down 0.07mmt (-18pct) from the 0.39mmt shipped during the January-February period. Elba Island’s annualised capacity utilisation for the report period, therefore, was also down by 20pp from 97pct during the previous report period. Notably, most of the plant’s March-April shipments were directed to Europe, led by the Netherlands.

Plaquemines LNG

Plaquemines LNG continued to ramp up output. The new plant produced at an estimated annualised nameplate capacity utilisation of 102pct and exported a total of 29 cargoes amounting to 2.26mmt during the report period of March and April. This was almost double the number of cargoes and amount shipped during the January-February period. According to our market visibility at the time of writing, most of the plant’s March-April shipments went to Europe, led by France. The GasLog Seattle was in the process of loading a cargo at the time of writing.

Calcasieu Pass LNG

Calcasieu Pass LNG increased its period-on-period exports. The plant shipped 1.97mmt during the report period, up 0.36mmt (22pct) from 1.61mmt during the January-February period. Annualised capacity utilisation thus also moved up by 17pp from 88pct in January-February to 105pct in March-April. Roughly 86pct of Calcasieu Pass shipments equating to 1.69mmt sailed for Europe during the report period with 0.43mmt of that share arriving in the United Kingdom.

Cameron LNG

Exports from Cameron LNG also saw slightly negative period-on-period growth. The plant shipped 2.73mmt in March-April, down 0.06mmt (-2pct) from the 2.79mmt recorded during the previous period of January-February. Cameron LNG thereby operated at an annualised capacity utilisation of 109pct for the report period. This was down 6pp from 115pct in January-February. Notably, the Point Fortin was still loading a cargo on 30 April, meaning that Cameron LNG shipments may be broadly flat period-on-period.

Cove Point LNG

Cove Point LNG decreased exports period-on-period with shipments down by 0.24mmt (-19pct) to 1.01mmt in March-April from 1.25mmt during the previous period of January-February. Nevertheless, plant continued to see output well above annualised nameplate capacity at 115pct even as it was down 32pp from 147pct during the previous period. According to our data, the Gail Bhuwan was approaching the plant at the time of writing.

Freeport LNG

In contrast, Freeport LNG grew its LNG exports period-on-period, with shipments up by 0.46mmt to 3.05mmt during the report period. Accordingly, the plant had been producing well above its nameplate capacity. Annualised capacity utilisation for the March-April period stood at 118pct, up 14pp from 104pct in January-February. During the previous report period of January-February, Freeport’s LNG exports amounted to 2.59mmt. Freeport was in the process of loading a cargo onto BW ENN Snow Lotus at the time of writing.

Corpus Christi LNG

Corpus Christi LNG also saw a significant production increase period-on-period. The plant’s exports in March-April were up by 0.21mmt (8pct) to 2.99mmt from 2.78mmt in January-February. The plant’s March-April shipments thus pegged report period utilisation at 119pct, up 4pp from the previous period. The Flex Aurora was loading a cargo at the plant at the time of writing.

Sabine Pass LNG

Sabine Pass LNG’s exports stood at 5.85mmt for the current report period, pegging capacity utilisation at 117pct, up 1pp period-on-period. The shipped volumes during March-April thus increased significantly by 0.21mmt from the 5.64mmt exported during January and February. Sabine Pass LNG’s exports continued to be underpinned by shipments to Europe – led by the Netherlands – whereas determined flows to the Pacific Basin were led by South Korea as a destination. The GasLog Geneva and the Amore Mio I were loading Sabine Pass cargoes at the time of writing with the Celsius Galway waiting in the offing.

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