Bearish shoulder-season fundamentals have made prompt gas prices at Henry Hub fall to their lowest level in five months, at just above $3/MMBtu. Appalachia production stayed robust, despite seasonal maintenance, while Haynesville basin output is set to rise by 1 bcf/d year-on-year, weighing on prompt prices.
Fundamentals are largely influencing price discovery at Henry Hub, the most liquid US gas trading point. Modelling by Energy Aspects indicates that gas production in the Lower 48 United States exceeded 107 bcf/d over the final few days of April, with gas flows from the Appalachia Basin remaining strong despite maintenance activities and lower regional consumption.
Appalachia production notched up 0.3 bcf/d and average 34 bcf/d, which helped offset the decline associated gas production from the Permian Basin, caused by beginning maintenance on the Permian Highway pipeline reduced flows by 0.9 bcf/d until the start of this week.
Profitable regional economics — despite Henry Hub’s recent selloff — has led to robust Appalachia production in March and April. According to US government figures, regional flows averaged 33.5 bcf/d in March and 33.9 bcf/d in April, up from 32.8 bcf/d over the previous two months.
aintenance works since early March were seen to have minimal effect on flows.
Appalachia gas volumes, in fact, reached a higher baseline and higher flows, analysts pointed out. The latest surge in production comes from MarkWest Liberty Midstream and DT Midstream, as per pipeline data.
Energy Aspect’s fundamental outlook for the remainder of the shoulder season is for the year-on-year storage gap to close considerably in the second quarter of 2025, with an estimated injection of 342 bcf for April and 438 bcf for May. Rising upstream gas supply would increase Lower 48 storage levels to about 2.60 trillion cubic feet, still 284 bcf lower y/y.
Haynesville flows stay tepid
Gas flows from the Haynesville basin, in contrast, stay subdued as producers were cautiously slow to respond to higher price at the start of the year. As of 17 April, the Haynesville rig count stands at 31 rigs, three rigs lower year-on-year.
Energy Aspects anticipates a modest increase in rig activity by the third quarter of 2025, averaging 33 rigs, two rigs higher quarter-on-quarter. This expectation is based on recent producer guidance indicating production growth for winter 2025–26 to support weather-induced demand and LNG feedgas expansion. Core Haynesville activity in Louisiana will likely contribute most of this growth, reaching 27 rigs by December, nine rigs higher than current levels.
Upstream investment drives further growth: Comstock announced plans in its Q4-24 earnings call to spend $130–150 million on Western Haynesville infrastructure in 2025. Funding will come from their partner, Quantum Capital Solutions. Comstock said it plans to operate four rigs in Western Haynesville in 2025 on average and intends to drill 20 further wells in the near-term future.
Aethon Energy, another major producer in Western Haynesville, announced earlier this year it would need Henry Hub prices to reach $5/MMBtu to incentivise investment to grow output. Analysts estimate the company’s rig count in Texas Haynesville will reach seven rigs by December, six rigs below current levels.
LNG export exposure
Latest US government data indicates Western Haynesville production reached 0.71 bcf/d in February, with Comstock averaging 0.32 bcf/d (45 percent of sub-basin production). Currently, Haynesville's production averages 11.5 bcf/d month-to-date, 0.1 bcf/d lower month-on-month.
“Incremental production from new activity remains elusive due to producer discipline,” analysts commented.
Expand Energy announced estimates that its Q1 25 Haynesville production will average 2.6 bcf/d, some 0.2 bcf/d higher quarter-on-quarter, while operating seven regional rigs, one less than the first quarter. The company’s Haynes-ville portfolio has approximately 2 bcf/d of exposure to LNG export facilities, with an additional 2.5 bcf/d in deliverability expected by the end of 2025, including 1 bcf/d of Gillis volumes that will come to market via the new NG3 pipeline.
