If tensions between Iran and Israel escalate into a regional war scenario, it could severely impact regional oil and gas exports as well as global shipping routes. Attacks on key facilities could wipe out nearly 1.4 million bpd of Iranian production and a full-blown war would choke the Strait of Hormuz, risking up to 12 million bpd of oil, analysts warn.
Upstream activity in Iran, so far, has stayed steadfast despite fighting following Hamas’ assault on Israel in October 2023. Iran's production rose by 227,000 bpd to 3.27 million bpd in August year-on-year, while Israel’s gas output grew 15% in 2023 and is expected to rise by 5% this year, supported by the Karish field.
Some $2 billion in greenfield investment had been planned for various upstream projects in the coming years. But production at the Karish and Katlan fields could be severely reduced if regional tensions escalate, hence future production and exports are at risk.
Anticipating the future is challenging, Rystad’s Middle East research director, Aditya Saraswat noted. So far – with no direct attacks between Iran and Israel, the conflict is largely a ‘proxy war’. As of today, there have not occurred major assaults on critical oil and gas infrastructure such as pipelines, storage facilities, or refineries.
All eyes on maritime borders
If things get worse, the maritime border agreement between Israel and Lebanon, signed in October 2022, could be torn to pieces. The agreement defines each country's rights over the Karish and Qana fields, with Israel retaining full rights to Karish and Lebanon to Qana.
“Escalating tensions could lead to the nullification of this agreement, affecting Israel's production from the Karish field, which is currently used for domestic supply,” Saraswat reckons, suggesting: “This disruption may also impact Israel's gas exports to Egypt and Jordan, which saw significant growth in 2023.
“Any decline in production and exports from Karish could be offset by increased output from other major fields like Tamar and Leviathan,” he noted.
The fields hold about 88 billion cubic meters (Bcm) of cumulative proven and probable (2P) reserves. Together, they form the independent’s core area of operation – following the divestment of its Croatian, Italian, and Egyptian assets. Production from the Katlan fields (Athena and Zeus) is expected to start by 2027.
All these fields are located near the Karish field near Lebanon’s maritime border, so analyst warn that any significant unrest could delay start-up.
