LNG

Gasunie has warned the Netherlands will not meet its 115 TWh gas storage target for this winter. Storage is currently just 44-45% full, the lowest since 2009, as utilities shy away from buying LNG at current high prices.

Soaring LNG prices have propelled up Pakistan power generation cost by 38% year-on-year, analysis by local brokerage Arif Habib Ltd shows. The latest cargo, delivered in late July, was purchased from TotalEnergies $21.88/MMBtu – the highest price Pakistan LNG ever paid for a spot cargo.

Record US natural gas production and sustained sub-$3.50/MMBtu Henry Hub prices are set to strengthen the economics of both LNG export expansions and new gas-fired power projects and, even as global demand tightens.

Pakistan LNG Ltd reportedly accepted a lone bid from TotalEnergies on 20 July, at $21.88 per MMBtu for a cargo nominally delivering on 27 to 28 July. It was the seventh spot purchase since QatarEnergy declared force majeure on 4 March, and the fifth procured for a July delivery window. The four before it cleared successively higher, at $16.74, $17.37, $18.23 and $20.70, the last of which was already the most expensive spot cargo Pakistan had bought since 2022. Not all of the purchased cargoes had berthed at the time of writing, according to our data.

High prices are causing a drop in seaborne coal imports to India, though LNG is no alternative due to supply constraints and record prices, leaving Indian utilities struggling to meet soaring electricity demand this summer.

The Japan Korea Marker (JKM) for LNG delivery into northeast Asia for September could exceed $22/MMBtu at the start of this week as shipping disruptions widens and competition for Atlantic Basin cargoes intensifies between Europe and Asia.

State-owned Pakistan LNG has purchased a cargo for late July delivery at nearly $21.88 per million British thermal units on Monday, its highest price since 2022, Bloomberg reported. In August, Pakistan seeks to buy more cargoes.

Asian LNG demand set to fall for a second consecutive year as Qatari supply disruption pushes spot prices to levels that force buyers to cut volumes and switch fuels. Wood Mackenzie forecasts Asia Pacific demand at 257 million tons (Mt) in 2026, down from 268 Mt in the previous year and a peak of 278 Mt in 2024.

The decade of structurally cheap US gas is drawing to a close, with Henry Hub prices forecast to rise towards $5 per MMBtu by 2035 from below $3 per MMBtu, as LNG demand growth tightens domestic balances, Wood Mackenzie said.

The Hormuz risk premium has washed out of gas prices since the US-Iran understanding, leaving TTF and JKM far below their March crisis peaks. The physical data does not yet justify it. Combined Qatari and Emirati exports across the strait reached barely a tenth of normal in June, and the downside remains live.