LNG

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Hormuz has not reopened, but Gulf LNG suppliers have stopped waiting for it. Qatari cargoes now move under Iranian-approved deliveries to Pakistan and under an AIS-suppressed dark transit to China, with potentially three more in motion. ADNOC has cleared three dark cargoes to Asia. A third channel discharges intra-Gulf at Kuwait, but volumes have almost halved.

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Crisis pricing has lifted on fresh Hormuz risk while US terminals run at their ceiling and the global re-export channel sits collapsed. The price move is geopolitical, not fundamental. Higher US output cannot push back against a risk-premium repricing in a market with no spare cargoes to bid for.

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