LNG

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Mexico's first Pacific-coast LNG cargo left Energia Costa Azul on 8 July aboard the Pacific Success, signalling for Asia. Some coverage has framed it as relief for a Hormuz-squeezed market. Our data puts that in proportion: a full year of the plant at nameplate is barely a fortnight of pre-war Qatari flow.

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A missile strike on the Nakilat LNG carrier Al Rekayyat, on the Omani-coast corridor that carried Qatar's tentative June restart, hits the one route reviving beyond-Hormuz exports. Our data puts Qatari laden departures for export at roughly 6pct of last year's norm. The channel enabling the recovery is now the target.

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Empty Qatari tankers are repositioning into the Gulf, read widely as the restart beginning. Our data shows the laden side lags. Of twelve Qatari cargoes sailed so far in June, eight went to Kuwait without ever crossing Hormuz. Genuine exports beyond Hormuz remain near a twentieth of normal.

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