Volumes of oil and gas produced in the US Gulf of Mexico (GOM) will remain relatively flat as new fields offset the decline in gas production from existing fields. A shift to modelling at well-level, implemented by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), compares historical production data with forecasts output of upcoming fields.
Changes were implemented in the August 2024 and going forward, giving a more robust analysis of factors that influence regional production trends in US waters.
Analysts also added new qualifiers to group the wells according to the floating production units (FPUs) associated with each well, field, block, and formation from which the wells will produce which allows for a more granular analysis.
Over 1.8 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil are forecast to be produced in the GOM in 2024 and 1.9 million b/d in 2025. Natural gas production is expected to average 1.8 billion cubic feet a day (Bcf/d) in both 2024 and 2025.
The United States federal offshore portion of the Gulf of Mexico accounts for about 97 percent of all U.S. Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) production, as some production in the GOM falls within state maritime boundaries. More than 94 percent of GOM crude oil production and 80 percent of GOM natural gas production come from deep water wells, and most hydrocarbon production takes place in the Western and Central planning areas, situated directly south of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.
Most of the natural gas produced in this region is associated gas found in crude oil reservoirs. The GOM gas production forecast is hence largely based on a ratio to crude oil production. EIA analysts said the new fields of 2024 and 2025 will contribute about 15 million cf/d of natural gas production in 2024 and 173 million cf/d in 2025.
The gas-oil ratio for total GOM production is expected to average about 1.0 million cubic feet of natural gas per thousand barrels of crude oil in 2024 and 2025.
