• May-June exports at 14.85mmt at the time of writing • Down by 1.18mmt (-7pct) compared to March-April period • Shipments up 1.20mmt (9pct) over period year-on-year • Avg. US capacity utilisation at 94pct for the reporting period
Overall US LNG exports decreased significantly by 1.18mmt (-7pct) to 14.85mmt during the report period of May-June from the 16.03mmt shipped during the previous period of March-April. However, they still came in 1.20mmt (9pct) above their year-on-year equivalent of 13.65mmt. As a result, US LNG capacity as a whole no longer produced flat out during the reporting period, with annualised capacity utilisation decreasing to 94pct. This represented a decrease of 7pp from the 102pct we calculated for the previous reporting period. It was also up 8pp from the 87pct utilisation during the equivalent period of May- June in 2022.
Exports in May reached 7.88mmt and decreased to 6.97mmt in June. The main drivers of that reduction were scheduled maintenance at Sabine Pass LNG and sliding European demand. Notably, its month-on-month reduction notwithstanding, June’s export level was still considerably higher than its 2022 equivalent of 6.14mmt due to the continued ramp up of output at Freeport LNG. The plant had been offline between early June 2022 and mid-February 2023 due to a fire incident and subsequent repairs. Following the incident, other US LNG plants led by Sabine Pass LNG and Cameron LNG managed to capitalise on strong European demand growth.
European demand began to trend lower during the current report period. European offtakes during the May-June period accounted for 8.33mmt (56pct) of total US LNG exports whilst in March-April that figure stood at 12.41mmt (77pct). Data by GIE shows European inventories had reached fill levels of up to 98pct at the beginning of July, with Germany reporting gas storage to be 81pct full. Among major European gas consumers, only the United Kingdom and Ukraine showed inventory levels below 60pct.
Gas prices in Europe continued to decrease whilst monthly Henry Hub gas spot prices, as assessed by the EIA, seemed to have reached a floor. The Henry Hub price decreased only marginally by $0.01mmBtu month-on-month to reach $2.15/mmBtu in May whilst the TTF Gas Endex for June stood at the approximate equivalent of US$10.96/mmBtu at the time of writing.
