Global demand for LNG will see a robust rise in the next few years, while gas will likely see a more gradual dynamic and oil may peak at the beginning of the next decade, UK energy major Shell said in a report.
Shell created three different scenarios for modelling energy security in the long term but stressed that they did not reflect its strategy or business plan.
The most positive outlook in terms of economic growth was dubbed 'Surge' and pre-supposes a pervasive use of artificial intelligence that would boost productivity globally and drive up the energy demand.
A second scenario called 'Archipelagos' saw countries around the world focused more on their self-interest than working together to spread the use of AI and develop renewable energy sources.
The 'Horizon' scenario is instead based on the assumption that the world will reach net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 and deliver a global average temperature rise below 1.5 deg C by the end of the century.
In all three scenarios, LNG shows significant growth in the near term, fuelled by ongoing projects in Qatar and the US, reaching around 550 mill tonnes per year by the end of the decade, the report said.
After 2030, the expectations on LNG diverge significantly in the three scenarios, with supply continuing to grow and reaching 700 mill tonnes per annum beyond 2040 in the 'Surge' scenario, while in the 'Horizon' scenario, LNG demand was seen to peak in the early 2030s.
Natural gas is seen growing until 2045 in the most upbeat scenario, 'Surge', while it is projected to peak in the very near term in the 'Horizon' scenario in order to meet net zero emissions by 2050.
Finally, Shell claimed that road transport electrification was the main reason for the world reaching peak oil demand in 2030 at the latest in the 'Surge' scenario.
The group is expected to release its outlook focused on LNG later this year.
