Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February, 2022, over 150 bill cu m per year of LNG liquefaction capacity has been approved.
This included Qatar’s North Field South and North Field West expansion projects, according to the latest data from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The US accounted for 75% of the liquefaction capacity sanctioned between 2022 and 2023. However, no US LNG projects have reached FID since January, 2024, due to the temporary pause on pending decisions on exports of LNG to non-free trade agreement countries.
Middle Eastern countries have become the lead drivers for new LNG project approvals this year, led by Qatar, the UAE, and Oman.
In addition, LNG developers in North America and the Middle East are increasingly focusing on reducing emissions through carbon capture and storage-based solutions, electrification, and renewable power supply, the IEA said.
In February 2024, Qatar announced it is proceeding with the North Field West expansion project, with a capacity of around 22 bill cu m per year, following the country’s previously announced projects, North Field East in 2021 and North Field South in 2023.
These expansion projects will increase Qatar’s total LNG liquefaction capacity by 85% (or more than 88 bill cu m per year) to over 190 bill cu m by 2030.
Qatar is developing carbon capture-based solutions to reduce the emissions intensity of its LNG exports. By 2023 QatarEnergy had deployed 2.2 mill tonnes per year of CCUS capacity. Its target is a total capacity of 7-9 mill tonnes by 2030 and over 11 mill tonnes per year by 2035.
In April 2024, Oman’ Marsa LNG project reached FID with a capacity of 1.36 bill cu m per year. It is expected to start operations by the first quarter of 2028, primarily targeting the LNG bunkering market in the region.
The liquefaction plant will be 100% electrically driven and supplied with solar power.
The UAE Ruwais LNG project reached FID in June, 2024. The 13 bill cu m per year facility is expected to start operations in 2028.
This plant will have an electrically powered liquefaction system and will rely on renewable power supply, which is set to reduce the emissions intensity of the LNG.
In Canada, the Cedar FLNG project (4.5 bill cu m per year) took FID in June, 2024 and plans to begin operations by late 2028. The plant will use renewable electricity.
Elsewhere, in Mexico, Altamira FLNG 2 (1.9 bill cu m per year) secured construction financing in July, 2024, with first LNG deliveries expected in the first half of 2026.
Together with Qatar’s expansion projects, LNG liquefaction plants that have reached FID, or are under construction, would add about 270 bill cu m per year of export capacity by the end of 2030.
This increase in LNG production capacity could loosen market fundamentals and ease gas supply security concerns in the second half of the decade, the IEA said.
