There were 2.54mmt of LNG on the water with destinations in China according to our market visibility at the time of writing on 31 May. These cargoes had an estimated delivery horizon of 9 July. Only one of these inbound cargoes had originated in the United States, however, whilst more than a third (0.85mmt) was derived from Australia followed by 0.67mmt from Australia. Four cargoes totalling 0.30mmt were broadly headed for China but still had to declare their destination terminals.
Most LNG cargoes still in transit at the time of writing and with scheduled arrivals at specified ports in China were due to arrive in North China and amounted to 1.08mmt, led by Qingdao LNG, which as a destination was followed by the Tianjin LNG terminal. However, we highlight that cargoes tagged with destination ‘Tianjin’ are frequently arriving at Tianjin-Nangang LNG. Concurrently, the South China region was looking to receive roughly 0.76mmt, led by 0.27mmt headed for the Guangdong Dapeng LNG terminal. Anticipated LNG deliveries to East China amounted to 0.40mmt. Apparent demand there was led by 0.15mmt going to the Zhejiang LNG terminal at the time of writing.
Four LNG cargoes totalling 0.30mmt were broadly headed towards China but without specifying an arrival port. The four shipments aboard the Yamal LNG-derived Yamal Spirit and LNG Megrez, the Oman LNG-sailed Clean Energy and the Ras Laffan-derived Q-Max vessel Al Mafyar had an arrival horizon of 9 June.
May Demand Outlook
At the time of writing, we were expecting robust Chinese demand growth in May over April. Our data pointed to full-month imports of 6.06mmt in May compared to 5.33mmt in April, a difference of 0.73mmt (14 percent). Chinese LNG offtakes for May already stood at 5.75mmt at the time of writing and thus led their equivalent April demand of 5.33mmt by 0.42mmt (8 percent). Our market visibility at the time of writing thus indicated this left 0.31mmt still to be delivered by the end of the month unless delays such as waiting times outside port limits or diversions push some of those cargoes into June.
North China
Of the 0.31mmt still scheduled to arrive in China by the end of May, we are anticipating 0.16mmt to be delivered to North China, comprising the wider Beijing area and China’s industrial north.
CNPC’s Caofeidian LNG was scheduled to receive 0.16mmt via two cargoes by 31 May. These shipments were exported by Qatar via the Q-Max vessel Al Mayeda and the Sakhalin-2 LNG-derived Al Khaznah.
Our market visibility did not indicate further cargoes to arrive in North China by the end of May.
East China
At the time of writing, we also did not expect the East China region – comprising the wider Shanghai area and Zhejiang province – to receive any additional cargo before the end of the month.
South China
Only in the south of the country, were we expecting a further 0.15mmt to be delivered via two cargoes to Guangdong Dapeng LNG by 31 May. The two shipments were derived from Atlantic LNG in Trinidad & Tobago via the Tristar Ruby and from Australia Pacific LNG in Australia via the CESI Wenzhou.
