East Mediterranean LNG prices have softened relative to European levels, driven by weak demand and low shipping rates. Ample storage, mild temperatures, and cheaper pipeline gas have lessened the need for LNG imports, eroding East Med premiums.
October imports to the East Med reached 1.021 million metric tons, a slight increase from September but still lower than last year. High storage levels in Italy and Croatia, at roughly 98% and 91%, have further curtailed demand. Additionally, lower pipeline gas costs make LNG less attractive, leading to discounts on cargoes bound for the region.
Despite current pressures, some traders anticipate a rebound in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 if weather shifts or supply disruptions arise. Factors like Egypt's shift to net imports, North African supply challenges, and potential UA transit issues could tighten supply, pushing up prices during peak winter demand.
