By 2050, Middle East LNG exports are predicted to reach 202 mill tonnes, driven largely by Qatar’s expansion plans. Net exports are expected to hit 188 mill tonnes by the same year.
In its Global Gas Outlook 2050, the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) said that in recent years, the Middle East has seen a notable increase in natural gas demand, driven by population growth and gas price subsidies.
The subsidies were introduced to promote economic development, support energy-intensive industries, and share the benefits with the local population.
At the same time, the region’s huge natural gas reserves have created opportunities to expand trade.
While seaborne LNG exports to Asia and Europe have been the main focus, regional gas trades – both within the Middle East and beyond – also saw smaller volumes exported through pipelines.
These include connections from Qatar to the UAE and Oman, Iran to Iraq and Turkiye, Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Qatar’s position as a leading global LNG exporter is set to strengthen further, with last year marking the continued expansion of its liquefaction capacities.
Qatar aims to nearly double its LNG production capacity, increasing output by around 85% from the current 77 mill tonnes to 142 mill tonnes per year by 2030.
NFE expansion project
This is being led by the North Field Expansion project, which will be implemented in three phases – North Field East (NFE), South (NFS), and West (NFW) projects.
This could contribute to a global oversupply later in the decade, GECF said.
Long-term LNG imports are expected to grow to 14 mill tonnes by 2050, with Kuwait accounting for around 50% of the growth.
Asia/Pacific will remain the primary destination for Middle Eastern LNG exports. By 2050, this region is expected to receive over 178 mill tonnes, representing around 90% of the region’s total LNG exports.
GECF predicted that exports to Europe will decline significantly by mid-century reflecting the region’s shift towards alternative energy sources.
Africa as a destination will also diminish following a rise by 2030.
