Despite being an LNG net exporter, Southeast Asia is to increasingly rely on imported LNG through 2030.
Imported LNG will meet the growing demand and support the waning domestic supplies, said GlobalData.
Southeast Asia represents a key growth region for natural gas over the next decade, as populations and economies continue to grow and several countries look to gas for meeting their ever-growing power demand.
Despite the region being a net exporter of gas supported mainly by major gas producers Malaysia and Indonesia, strong demand growth could outpace the regional supply by the end of the decade.
Daniel Rogers, GlobalData’s Senior Oil and Gas Analyst, said: “In the gas and LNG outlook for the region, both Thailand and the Philippines’ gas supply-demand gaps are expected to widen as steady demand growth is met by the declining domestic supply. Both countries will look to the LNG market to fill the gap where domestic production or pipeline imports are unable to, through additional LNG regasification capacity.
“There is over 3 trill cu ft of regasification capacity in the pipeline, approximately 2 trill of planned and 1 trill of announced capacity across these two countries that could be online by 2030, this compares to just 0.5 trill cu ft of capacity currently active,” he said.
First cargo
Last year, Thailand and Singapore imported record LNG volumes, and Myanmar imported its first LNG cargo despite the pandemic. In Thailand, LNG imports are likely to become increasingly important for the country, as both domestic supply and imports from Myanmar face natural decline, while the demand growth from these two countries continues to rise.
Singapore is expected to remain heavily dependent upon gas up to 2030, as it represents almost all the country’s power generation. Singapore’s LNG imports jumped 20% last year and with the piped gas supply contracts expiring over the near term, LNG imports will be vital for supporting a gas hungry power mix.
Rogers added: “On the supply side, Malaysia and Indonesia have a project pipeline that will help boost production over the near term and just under 4 mill tonnes per annum of increased LNG liquefaction capacity in Indonesia will increasingly be used to supply its domestic market.
“However, Brunei, Vietnam and Myanmar risk facing domestic supply declines over the forecast period unless they can progress their currently challenged, undeveloped gas projects. Progress of such projects will be pivotal for their supply outlooks.
“LNG exporters will be watching Southeast Asia closely as new entrants to the LNG import market emerge and a build out of regasification capacity will provide opportunity in the form of new buyers and more volumes directed to the region,” he concluded.
