The United States will remain the world’s largest natural gas producer throughout the period through 2050, reaching 43 trillion cubic feet per annum, a nearly 50 percent increase from now with US shale-gas resources continuing to expand in the Appalachian region and in formations in and around Texas.
According to the International Energy Outlook 2019 just released by the US government, Middle East natural gas production increases 15 Tcf from 2018 to 2050, reaching 37 Tcf per annum in 2050, an increase of around 70 percent.
After 2030, countries in the Middle East increase production of low-cost, abundant hydrocarbon resources to meet growing demand worldwide.
“Natural gas production in Russia is forecast to increases about 40 percent during the projection period, reaching 34 Tcf in 2050 and most of the increase is exported to Asia and Europe,” said the US Outlook.
Canada also continues to produce relatively large amounts of natural gas per annum, reaching 6.8 Tcf in 2050, a nearly 20 percent increase from 2018.
World natural gas consumption increases more than 40 percent from 2018 to 2050, with growth in non-Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries outpacing growth in the OECD, which groups the 36 wealthiest countries.
The US report said that global natural gas consumption increases by 2050 to a total of nearly 200 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu).
“Natural gas use accelerates the most in countries outside of the OECD to meet demand from increased industrial activity, natural gas-fired electricity generation and transportation fueled by LNG,” said the report.
“Natural gas consumption in non-OECD countries grows from about 70 quadrillion Btu in 2018 to 120 quadrillion Btu in 2050, a 70 percent increase,” stated the Outlook.
Despite strong growth in LNG trade, natural gas pipeline flows continue to account for most of the inter-regional natural gas trade during the projection period as pipeline infrastructure is further developed around the world.
“Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia (primarily Russia) remains the largest net exporter of natural gas in 2050, followed by the Middle East. During this time, OECD Europe increases its dependence on Russian pipeline natural gas, and non-OECD Asia imports a growing amount of LNG,” the Outlook explained.
“The Americas grow as a net exporter of natural gas, driven mostly by LNG shipments from the US to countries outside the region” stated the report.
“During this time, the non-OECD share of global natural gas consumption increases from about 51 percent to 61 percent,” it added.
“In OECD countries, natural gas consumption increases 17 percent between 2018 and 2050, reaching 78 quadrillion Btu,” said the report.
Most of this growth is forecast in the non-OECD industrial sector.
“In non-OECD countries, industrial sector natural gas consumption increases nearly 50 percent, from 32 quadrillion Btu in 2018 to 46 quadrillion Btu in 2050,” said the report.
“Chemical and primary metals manufacturing, as well as oil and natural gas extraction, account for most of the growing demand,” it added.
Natural gas consumption for electricity generation in non-OECD countries increases more than 60 percent, at 1.5 percent per year, accounting for part of the 2.2 percent per year growth in electricity demand in those countries.
Consumption of natural gas in the transportation sector remains the smallest of the end-use sectors throughout the projection period, and yet this sector shows relatively strong growth in non-OECD countries. Increases in demand are driven mostly by LNG use to move freight by truck and rail.
