Mediterranean - critical Atlantic Basin supply hub
The Mediterranean region could become a critical demand centre for Atlantic Basin LNG.
This was due to Middle East supply disruptions, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, forcing Southern European and Turkish buyers to compete more aggressively for flexible cargoes, potentially reshaping regional price levels and global trade flows.
The combined impact of Iranian strikes on Qatari infrastructure and the halt of vessel traffic through Hormuz has removed a significant portion of flexible LNG supply from the global system, tightening prompt availability into Southern Europe and the Mediterranean, market participants said, according to an S&P Global report.
Qatar had exported 1.79 mill tonnes of LNG to Europe to March of this year, compared to 2.1 mill tonnes during the same period in 2025, according to S&P Global Energy CERA data.
Of that volume, 630,000 tonnes were destined for Mediterranean destinations, down 47.9% from 1.21 mill tonnes over the same period a year ago.
Last week, Platts assessed the Mediterranean marker at $17.436 per MMBtu, a 3 cent discount to NWE, while the Platts East Mediterranean Marker (EMM) was assessed at $17.666 per MMBtu, or a 20 cent premium to NWE.
Prices have retreated from recent peaks but were high. For example, on 19th March, the Med marker surged to $20.728 per MMBtu and EMM to $20.978 per MMBtu, according to Platts, part of S&P Global Energy, data following news of the missile strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex, the country's key LNG export hub.
As a result of the shutdown in Middle East production, market participants said spot and flexible LNG availability into the Mediterranean Basin had sharply decreased.
This disruption had shifted attention toward Atlantic Basin suppliers, particularly the US, as the primary source of incremental cargoes. Traders said buyers in Italy, Greece and Turkey had increased their presence in the spot market, intensifying competition for prompt deliveries.
This shift risked redrawing traditional arbitrage flows, with Mediterranean demand potentially pulling cargoes away from other price-sensitive regions.
Turkey is expected to play an increasingly pivotal role in the Mediterranean LNG balance in the coming weeks.
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