The world's LNG imports are set to jump to the highest in a year this month, as Europe's winter demand draws cargoes away from Asia.
A total of 38.12 mill tonnes of LNG is on track to be imported in January, up from 37.69 mill in December and the most since January, 2024's 38.73 mill, according to data compiled by commodity analysts, Kpler.
According to Kpler, Europe's imports are expected to rise to 11.82 mill tonnes this month, up from 10.87 mill in December and the highest since April, 2023.
While Europe's LNG imports are likely to rise 8.7% in January from the month before, arrivals from Russia are expected to drop to 1.60 mill tonnes, down 11.6% from December's 1.81 mill tonnes.
Europe's Russian LNG imports are increasingly uncertain, especially with the return of Donald Trump as US President.
Trump is strongly in favour of boosting US energy exports, and LNG shipments to Europe offer one of the best opportunities to do so, sources said.
If European countries agree to phase out imports from Russia in favour of US cargoes, this move would help meet several objectives.
These include putting further pressure on Russian President, Vladimir Putin, to end the war in Ukraine, as well as giving Trump a ‘win’ that may help ease the threat of new tariffs on Europe's exports to the US.
However, the global LNG market may move into surplus by the end of this year, making it in the interests of both Trump and US LNG exporters to try and limit Russian export markets.
Europe's US LNG imports are expected to rise to a record high of 6.70 mill tonnes in January, up from 5.20 mill in December and 11.7% above the previous peak of 6 mill tonnes in January last year.
In contrast, Asia's imports of US LNG are expected to drop to 1.81 mill tonnes this month, down from 2.2 mill in December and the lowest since February, 2024, according to Kpler.
Asia's total LNG imports are also set for a decline in January, dropping to 24.48 mill tonnes from a 10-month high of 25.50 mill in December.
This decline is largely down to a milder-than-usual winter, which has trimmed demand in China, Japan and South Korea, the world's top three importers.
Relatively high spot prices have also cut demand, especially in China, with January arrivals are forecast to be 6.29 mill tonnes, down from December's 7.58 mill and almost 20% below the 7.83 mill seen in January, 2024.
The spot price for LNG for delivery to North Asia ended last week at $14 per MMBtu, up slightly from the $13.90 in the previous week.
European natural gas prices have also remained high, with the TTF benchmark ending at €47.90 per MWh, which is equivalent to $14.73 MMBtu.
