Growth in US LNG production is essential to balance global markets and provide emerging Asia with an alternative to coal, the region’s dominant fuel for power generation. Wood Mackenzie forecasts LNG demand from Asia will grow from 270 million tons per annum (mtpa) this year to 510 mtpa in 2050 – and without resources to be self-sufficient, the region must rely on imported LNG to cover its energy needs.
As the world’s biggest LNG exporter, the United States has been essential to balancing global markets and providing electric power generators across Asia with an affordable and available alternative to the high-emitting coal. However, unless there is an upsurge of LNG supply from new projects, rising coal-burn across emerging Asia will cause a substantial rise in related emissions, a study commissioned by the Asia Natural Gas & Energy Association (ANGEA) finds.
Two scenarios were modelled: one where the current halt to U.S. LNG export approvals to non-free trade agreement countries is lifted early in 2025 and another where this ‘pause’ stays in place longer-term.
“If the pause is lifted and approvals and development of export facilities resume, then U.S. LNG is expected to comprise a third of global supply by 2035,” said ANGEA chief executive Paul Everingham. “But if it remains in place and planned and proposed U.S. LNG projects are not developed, there is a risk that LNG developments in other regions will fail to keep pace with anticipated demand growth.”
Though considerable LNG supply will come to the market in the second half of this decade, uncertainty abounds about the 2030s and beyond. This supply risk is impacting energy planning in Asia.
Speaking to energy decision makers around Asia, who plan to invest tens of billions of dollars in gas supply and infrastructure worth, ANGEA found the most common question they ask us is ‘where is our gas supply for future decades going to come from?’
Bangladesh, Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia will not be able to realize their plans to transition to gas-fired power if LNG prices are high and coal use, which hit record levels in both 2022 and 2023, will keep growing. “They want to know if the U.S. will be a reliable long-term supplier of the LNG they seek to replace coal in power generation,” he explained.
“If it’s not from the U.S. or Australia, then this study shows gas would need to be sourced from less cost-competitive projects around the world and the likely outcome would be higher LNG prices than what many South Asian and Southeast Asian nations can afford.”
And their fallback position is – quite understandably – to stick with a fuel they are familiar with and which they know is likely to be inexpensive and plentiful: coal.
“If price increases were to result in 2035 LNG demand from the emerging Asian importing countries being 30% lower than Wood Mackenzie’s current projections, it’s estimated an additional 95 million tons of coal would be used in that year alone,” Everingham concluded.
