Russian gas flows to Europe via Ukraine at the Sudzha interconnection point are expected to continue as normal..
According to the latest data from grid operator GTSOU, expected flows were 42.2 mill cu m per day.
Supplies have been running at around 42 mill cu m for most of this year, despite the ongoing war and the incursion by Ukrainian troops in August into Russia's Kursk region -- from where Russian gas enters Ukraine.
This data, released yesterday, comes amid reports that Russia is planning a new counter offensive in Kursk in the coming days.
The European gas market has been nervous since the initial August incursion into Kursk by Ukrainian troops given the potential for disruption to the remaining Russian gas flows to Europe that pass through Sudzha.
European gas prices are back close to their 2024 highs, with Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessing the Dutch TTF month-ahead price on 8th November at €42.06 per MWh, compared with its highest this year on 25th October of €43.47 per MWh.
The TTF month-ahead price rose above €43 per MWh in early trading on 11th November, according to ICE data.
The concerns over the conflict in Russia's Kursk region close to key gas infrastructure comes when the five-year transit deal between Kyiv and Moscow is set to expire at the end of 2024.
Azerbaijan was said to be in talks to facilitate the continued transit next year.
Russian gas transit via Ukraine hit a high as 117 bill cu m in 2008 but fell to just 14.65 bill cu m last year.
Gazprom is contracted to send 110 mill cu m per day of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine in 2024 -- or a total of 40 bill cu m -- before the contract expires.
But since May, 2022 Gazprom has been sending less gas contracted and paying less than the agreed amount.
This came after Ukraine declared force majeure on its ability to transit Russian gas shipped via an alternative entry point at Sokhranivka, saying it no longer had operational control of infrastructure in parts of eastern Ukraine, S&P Global said.
In response, Gazprom said it would only pay for services rendered, despite the ship-or-pay provision in the transit contract.
Up to 33 mill cu m per day of Russian gas could flow into Ukraine at Sokhranivka before the force majeure.
