Chinese LNG Demand Outlook

Tuesday, 01 April 2025
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There were 1.94mmt of LNG on the water with destinations in China according to our market visibility at the time of writing on 31 March. These cargoes had an estimated delivery horizon of 30 April. None of these inbound cargoes had originated in the United States, whilst 0.77mmt were due from Qatar and 0.51mmt from Australia. Five cargoes totalling 0.35mmt were broadly headed for China but still had to declare their destination terminals.

Most LNG cargoes still in transit at the time of writing and with scheduled arrivals at specified ports in China were due to arrive in South China and amounted to 0.65mmt, led by Guangdong Dapeng LNG, which as a destination was followed by the Beihai LNG terminal. However, we highlight that cargoes tagged with the destination of ‘Guangdong Dapeng LNG’ have frequently been arriving at other Chinese terminals shortly after arriving in Chinese waters. Concurrently, the North China region was looking to receive roughly 0.44mmt, led by 0.23mmt headed for the Qingdao LNG terminal. Again, we caution that this declared destination might be misleading as the cargo may eventually arrive at one of the other terminals in North China. Meanwhile, anticipated LNG deliveries to East China amounted to 0.50mmt. Apparent demand there was led by 0.12mmt going to the Jiangsu LNG terminal at the time of writing, followed by Shanghai (Yangshan) LNG with 0.10mmt.

Seven LNG cargoes totalling 0.35mmt were broadly headed towards China but without specifying an arrival port. The shipments aboard the North Light, LNG Megrez, Maran Gas Agamemnon, Clean Ocean and Milaha Ras Laffan had an arrival horizon of 30 April. Three Russian vessels were carrying Yamal LNG cargoes that had previously been transferred at Murmansk whilst the Milaha Ras Laffan was transporting a Qatari cargo. The Maran Gas Agamemnon carried an Australia Pacific LNG contingent.

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