2.77mmt on the water with a delivery horizon of 1st December, with c. 44 percent due in the North China region. At the time of writing, there were also cargoes amounting to 0.49mmt with unconfirmed destinations in China.
North China
Of total LNG currently en route to China, we are anticipating 1.21mmt to be delivered to North China – comprising the wider Beijing area and China’s industrial north – with a delivery horizon of 1st December.
Current market visibility indicates at least 0.28mmt are destined for PetroChina’s Dalian LNG by 8th November, comprising two cargoes from Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex and one from Nigeria’s Bonny Island via the Q-Max vessels Mozah (0.11mmt) and Al Mayeda (0.11mmt) as well as the LNG Oyo (0.06mmt).
Meanwhile, CNOOC’s Tianjin - Nangang LNG is looking to receive 0.26mmt by 8th November, taking a 21 percent share of LNG headed to the region. The four cargoes were exported by Australia Pacific LNG (0.14mmt), Cove Point LNG (0.05mmt) and Angola LNG (0.07mmt). The 0.26mmt are aboard the CESI Wenzhou and CESI Tianjin as well as the British Mentor and the La Mancha Knutsen, respectively.
At the North China region’s southernmost border, expected deliveries to Qingdao LNG comprise three Australian cargoes via the CESI Qingdao (0.08mmt), the Grace Cosmos (0.05mmt) and the Grace Acacia (0.05mmt), all three sailing from Australia Pacific LNG, which we expect to arrive by 8th November. In addition, Papua New Guinea’s PNG LNG has a cargo en route aboard the Gigira Laitebo (0.07mmt) with expected arrival on 2nd November.
US LNG continues to flow into China
Caofeidian LNG, meanwhile, is looking to receive four cargoes by 1st December. Notably, the last cargo to arrive within that time frame is the BW Pavilion Vanda carrying a Cameron LNG cargo, our LNG Market Tracker data indicates. The trade thus marks the continuation of US LNG flows to China in October after exports from the plant were hampered by bad weather.
The Georgiy Ushakov (0.07mmt) and the British Partner (0.07mmt), meanwhile, are carrying two Yamal LNG cargoes to China’s North and are scheduled to arrive by 9th November. The former we expect to arrive at Caofeidian via the Northern Sea Route whilst the latter may still be diverted to another Chinese terminal in our estimation. The British Partner’s cargo is a Yamal transshipment via the Clean Vision that took place at Zeebrugge on 14th September.
We are also expecting the Grace Barleria (0.06mmt) to deliver an Australian Wheatstone LNG cargo to Caofeidian by 31st October. The vessel departed Wheatstone LNG on 19th October and was on schedule at the time of writing.
Completing the demand outlook for northern China are 0.18mmt scheduled to arrive at Sinopec’s Tianjin LNG via two Yamal cargoes as well as a Sabine Pass LNG shipment. The former two are aboard the Nikolay Zubov (0.05mmt) and the Clean Planet (0.06mmt) whilst the latter one will arrive via the Kinisis (0.07mmt). Notably, the two Russian cargoes were also sent via the Northern Sea Route and are expected at Tianjin by 4th November. The Kinisis, however, is not due until 23rd November.
East China
We currently see the East China region –comprising the wider Shanghai area and Zhejiang province – to receive 0.56mmt by 28th November. Zhoushan LNG is scheduled to receive 0.06mmt from Sabine Pass LNG in the United States via the LNG Jurojin by that date. Moreover, we see four Australian and one Qatari cargo aboard the Valencia Knutsen (0.06mmt), the Tangguh Hiri (0.07mmt), the Methane Julia Louise (0.07mmt), the Barcelona Knutsen (0.06mmt) and the Q-Flex Al Safliya (0.08mmt) due at Zhejiang LNG by 11th November. Additionally, we are seeing an Australian Gladstone LNG cargo travelling to Qidong LNG via the Seri Begawan (0.06mmt). At the time of writing the vessel was indicating arrival on 30th October. Finally, our data indicate Jiangsu LNG is due to receive a cargo from Australia’s Gorgon plant via the Castillo de Caldelas (0.06mmt) whilst the Malaysia LNG-derived Polar Spirit is expected at Shanghai LNG by 30th October.
South China
In the south of the country, we are currently expecting 0.51mmt to be delivered by 11th November, led by three Australian NWS LNG cargoes aboard the Flex Enterprise (0.06mmt), the Dapeng Star (0.06mmt) and the Dapeng Moon (0.06mmt). We expect the three vessels to arrive at CNOOC’s Guangdong Dapeng LNG terminal by 5th November.
Nigerian and Oman also had one cargo each at sea to the South China region, which we expect to arrive at Zhuhai LNG by 11th November. Malaysia’s Malaysia LNG facility, meanwhile, had a cargo en route to Beihai LNG via the Seri Bakti (0.07mmt). We are also expecting the Min Lu (0.06mmt) to deliver an Indonesian Tangguh LNG shipment to Fujian LNG by 6th November whilst the APLNG-derived BW Pavilion Leeara (0.05mmt) was carrying a Shenzhen Diefu-bound cargo at the time of writing. Finally, we highlight the LNG Lerici was carrying a Malaysian cargo to Dongguan LNG and at the time writing was expected to arrive by 1st November. The vessel’s cargo derived from a ship-to-ship transfer via the Methane Shirley Elisabeth earlier in October.
