LNG

Our data suggests Egypt’s Idku LNG shipped a rare cargo on Monday, which would mark another welcome break to the plant’s protracted market absence. However, our market visibility still does not suggest a return to regular exports from Idku LNG although spot prices are firming up. Meanwhile, Egypt’s other LNG plant – Damietta LNG – is also slated to remain offline after a deal to restart the plant fell through in April.

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September LNG trade continues to improve on Asian and some European demand

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China’s domestic LNG prices saw a rally of more than 14% since September, with the average terminal capacity utilisation in the high 80s in October to date. By contrast, capacity utilisation stood at only 59% this time last year. Nevertheless, our current market visibility suggests lower Chinese LNG imports week-on-week.

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Following a protracted weather-induced hiatus, Sempra’s Cameron LNG restarted LNG production on Sunday. A string of severe weather had previously forced exports to be stopped due to extensive interruptions to the plant’s power supply. Our data currently indicates the plant could export up to three cargoes this week, depending on storage levels and shipping channel clearance.

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Japan has firmly re-established itself as the world’s leading buyer of LNG. Following subdued demand in the run-up to summer due to the negative economic impact of COVID-19 related health measures, the country’s cargo offtakes have broadly returned to year-on-year levels. Meanwhile, US LNG exporters are keen to return to growth with last week’s exports rising sharply.