LNG

European gas prices have risen above $500 per thousand cubic meters (mcm) reflecting a rise in Henry Hub prices driven by a sharp increase in US LNG exports and cold winter weather.

European gas prices continued to soften in November, with TTF month-ahead prices down by 25% year-on-year to $10.5 per MMBtu as a 15% yoy surge in global LNG supply outstrips demand.

Traded LNG markets are hedged between two risks – winter weather and further shipments from Russia’s sanctioned Arctic LNG 2. Six more vessels are headed to China with estimated arrivals between now and early October, Energy Aspect understands.

LNG demand growth east of Suez is expected to exceed regionals supply, so Asian buyers are looking to pull some flexible Atlantic cargoes to balance. Energy Aspects is bullish against JKM-TTF spreads over the balance of 2025, though call on cross-basin is lower this year as contractual term cover in the top five Asian markets – China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and India – has fallen to 82% in 2025.

Prices at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), Europe’s most liquid gas trading hub, have risen due to a growing risk premium related to residual Russian flows or cold-weather events. The TTF Q1-25 contract is already pricing near the top of the coal–gas fuel-switching range in the power sector.

Spot and forward LNG prices indicate the supply/demand balance will tighten in December and going into the first quarter of 2025. Following two exceptionally mild winters, markets are currently well supplied at relatively low prices, analysts said, hence a prolonged spell of cold temperatures could squeeze the balance substantially and cause price spikes.

Europe's latest episode of dark and almost wind-still weather – dubbed Dunkelflaute – has once again highlighted the importance of flexible gas generation. Low wind speeds since early November reduced wind power output by 40% yoy, or nearly 15 TWh compared to November 2024, IEA figures show and that shortfall was largely offset by flexible gas power plants ramping up output by 65% yoy, or 13 TWh.

Global LNG markets have been pretty unphased by last week’s US election results: near-term demand fundamentals are net bearish as traders await the onset of more severe winter weather. Looking at Q1-2025, uncertainty abounds with regards to Egypt’s LNG demand due to insufficient domestic gas production and escalating tensions in the Middle East.