LNG

Fitch Rating reckons utilities in Asia Pacific can only a absorb a “short-lived fuel-supply disruption” linked to the Iran conflict. KEPCO and KOGAS rely heavily on imported LNG, so sustained shortages persist will weigh heavy on utilities balance sheets, analysts warn.

Global LNG supply is forecast to top 594 million tons by 2030, as a massive capacity build-out in Qatar and the US causes an oversupply of up to 15 million tons. For African utilities, a sustained supply surplus is more of a curse than a blessing, analysts warn.

Fitch Ratings has revising down EBITDA margins for global corporates to below 18%, down 0.5pp from forecasts in early 2025. For the oil & gas sector, Fitch changed its outlook from ‘neutral’ to ‘deteriorating’ after the rating agency already cut its global GDP growth projections in April due to the uncertainty surrounding US tariffs.

Natural gas prices in the US are set to rise as more LNG gets exported and gas-burn in the electric power sector increases seasonally. Henry Hub spot price are forecast to average nearly $4.20/MMBtu in the third quarter of 2025 – almost double the price from a year earlier.