LNG

The arbitrage for U.S. LNG cargoes is now favouring deliveries to Europe over northeast Asia, according to Spark Commodities, as shipping costs and regional price spreads render Atlantic-to-Pacific deliveries uneconomic for the remainder of 2026.

The United States and China have extended a bilateral trade truce – the so-called Busan Agreement – until January 10. The accord reduces the risk of renewed tariff escalation between the world’s two largest economies, but does not include a commitment that China will buy US LNG.

The United States has offered up to $6 billion in potential financing for Argentina LNG, a proposed $51 billion integrated project led by state-controlled YPF to develop Vaca Muerta gas for export. The funding will be supplied under the Andes-Atlantic Corridor launched by the two countries on Wednesday.

Chinese President Xi Jinping will fly to Washington for a state visit on 24 September in a bid to stabilise a relationship strained by tariffs and technology controls. LNG markets eagerly await whether Xi will agree to remove the 15% tariff on US LNG imports to China, which currently renders such imports uneconomic.

Oil prices have plunged on Monday as fresh U.S.-Iran talks raise hopes for a reinstatement of Middle Eastern oil and LNG deliveries. The November Brent contract was seen trading as low as $99.07 barrel at the time of writing, pulling down oil-indexed term LNG prices.

China’s state-owned oil and gas company CNOOC sees potential for an energy cooperation with the US, and would consider investing alongside US partners in future projects, a senior executive said, as signs of a thaw in trade relations emerge.

The US Court of Appeals has removed a major legal obstacle to Venture Global’s CP2 LNG export terminal in Louisiana, upholding the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) approval of the $28 billion project and its associated CP Express pipeline.

Stalled US-Iran negotiations are manifesting LNG price premiums this autumn, with the average price for an October cargo delivered to Northeast Asia forecast at $22.50 per MMBtu. The geopolitical premium is firmly engrained in global LNG markets, fuelling a bullish sentiment in Asia where the price of delivered LNG increased by$0.85/MMBtu week-on-week to nearly$22.10/MMBtu.

The United States has launched what it calls an “economic D‑Day” against Iran, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent extending sanctions against nearly 60 Iran-linked entities and vessels, raising stakes for oil and LNG trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

The collapse of US-Canada trade negotiations, followed by new US tariffs of up to 50% on a range of Canadian imports, could raise construction costs and make new Canadian LNG export projects harder to finance.