LNG

China’s state-owned oil and gas company CNOOC sees potential for an energy cooperation with the US, and would consider investing alongside US partners in future projects, a senior executive said, as signs of a thaw in trade relations emerge.

The US Court of Appeals has removed a major legal obstacle to Venture Global’s CP2 LNG export terminal in Louisiana, upholding the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) approval of the $28 billion project and its associated CP Express pipeline.

Stalled US-Iran negotiations are manifesting LNG price premiums this autumn, with the average price for an October cargo delivered to Northeast Asia forecast at $22.50 per MMBtu. The geopolitical premium is firmly engrained in global LNG markets, fuelling a bullish sentiment in Asia where the price of delivered LNG increased by$0.85/MMBtu week-on-week to nearly$22.10/MMBtu.

The United States has launched what it calls an “economic D‑Day” against Iran, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent extending sanctions against nearly 60 Iran-linked entities and vessels, raising stakes for oil and LNG trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

The collapse of US-Canada trade negotiations, followed by new US tariffs of up to 50% on a range of Canadian imports, could raise construction costs and make new Canadian LNG export projects harder to finance.

With five US LNG export projects set to start operations and ramp up production by the end of 2027, the country’s total gas export capacity is forecast to grow nearly 30%. According to EIA data, exports are bound to rise 1.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2026 to average 17.0 Bcf/d and increase by an additional 1.5 Bcf/d) in 2027.

Optionality, not just molecules, is what LNG buyers are scrambling for as spare capacity shrinks and shipments from Qatar remain constraint. As sources for ‘safe’ supply become finite, each new shipping disruption has a greater impact on prices and procurement decisions, analysts warn.

Soaring LNG trade flows from the US and Canada have offset around 70% of the lost supply via the Strait of Hormuz, though further military escalations in the region and delays in restoring Qatari exports keeps could prolong market tightness into 2027, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns.

One US LNG cargo reached China on 16 July, the first in seventeen months, but it may never be imported. Our tracking shows the Al Fat'h diverted from Huizhou, an ordinary customs berth, to bonded Yangpu, where a cargo can wait, clear customs, or leave again with duty never falling due. Which of those happens is not yet knowable, and Beijing's tariff on US LNG still stands.

Plaquemines, Corpus Christi and Golden Pass drove a sharp rise in US LNG exports, which increased 18.1% year on year to 61.11 MMt in the first half of 2026 on a sailed-date basis.