LNG

Soaring LNG trade flows from the US and Canada have offset around 70% of the lost supply via the Strait of Hormuz, though further military escalations in the region and delays in restoring Qatari exports keeps could prolong market tightness into 2027, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns.

Crude oil and LNG shippers are waiting for more details after U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington would impose a 20% charge on all cargoes transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a move the U.N.’s International Maritime Organization said it strongly opposes as unlawful.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, with 22 Japan-linked ships, including six large crude oil tankers and several LNG carriers, transited the strait to exit between July 7 and 9, transport minister Yasushi Kaneko said at a news conference in Tokyo. The number of Japan-flagged vessels in the Gulf has fallen from 45 to just four, with shipowners declining to comment on safety precautions for the crew.

Five crude oil and LNG tankers have turned back from attempts to transit the Strait of Hormuz after Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the area. As tit-for-tat attacks between the US and Iran continue, maritime authorities raised the risk of transiting Hormuz to “severe.”

Global LNG demand could reach nearly 700 million tonnes a year by 2050, a 65% increase from 2025-levels, Shell forecasts, assuming shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal this summer, before growth resumes in 2027.

Bullishness abounds for LNG prices and winter 2026/27 contracts at Europe’s benchmark TTF gas trading hub after US President Donald Trump threatened to impose a US toll on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. For spot prices, the sell-off after the peace memorandum was short-lived.

More than forty Qatari LNG carriers, some 3.4mmt of carrying capacity, waiting in- and outside Hormuz, eager to follow Disha’s open crossing. Vessels are not the constraint. The strait and the offline Ras Laffan trains are.

A fifth Qatari LNG cargo, aboard the Al Daayen, has transited the Strait of Hormuz bound for China where it is expected to arrive on July 6, ship tracking data shows. Yet the cargo could change destination last minute, mirroring four China-bound US LNG cargoes that were diverted to South Korea and Japan instead.

The Al Sahla, a 211,842 cbm Q-Flex that went dark near the Strait of Hormuz on 25 May, did not complete its transit. It was previously widely reported as heading to China with arrival on 14 June. LNG Journal's vessel tracking data shows the vessel is currently en route to Kuwait’s Al Zour terminal.

Q-Flex LNG carrier Al Sahla is at Iranian anchorage after attempting Hormuz transit, with two further Qatari vessels turned back in same window as Iran's enforcement posture appears to have shifted.