LNG

US developer Argent LNG is targeting a final investment decision (FID) within two years after securing Department of Energy approval to export nearly 1.3 trillion cubic feet per year (Tcf/y) of LNG from its proposed Port Fourchon terminal to countries with US free trade agreements.

Kenyan authorities have announced plans for a $2.9 billion LNG-fuelled power plant near the port of Mombasa. The initiate targets a 1,200 MW plant in the Dongu Kundo area, provided attractively-priced term deliveries can be secured.

Executives of South Korea’s state-run utility KOGAS have visited Alaska as the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE) targets to increase the share of LNG in the power gen mix from 16.9% currently to 18.8% by 2030. US LNG imports to Korea already more than doubled year-on-year amid an ongoing Free Trade Agreements renegotiation.

The head of the German energy regulator BNetzA, Klaus Müller, disagrees with the proposal of the European Union to extend gas storage target until 2027. The mandated 90% filling level of storages by November seens to distort seasonal pricing pattern while a build-out in LNG import infrastructure offers alternatives to gas storage.

Since late 2024, gas prices for summer delivery have been trading at a premium to winter – a reversal of typical seasonal pricing. Critics blame this on the mandatory storage goals, arguing they reduce market flexibility and are skewing market signals.

Speculative long positions at the Dutch TTF gas trading hub have increased recently, fuelling concerns that traders are betting on government support for storage refills.

BNetzA President Müller find this trend worrying: “It makes me nervous. It doesn’t inspire confidence that everyone is acting responsibly,” he said, arguing the EU storage goal incentives are misaligned, costly and distort the behaviour of free markets.

The EU had introduced the 90% gas storage filling mandates prior to the winter season in 2022 when Russian gas imports collapsed, but critics say the rules are no longer adapt to today’s market dynamics. As Germany’s coalition talks continue, Müller wants to raise the issue directly with the country’s next energy minister.

EU Regulators uphold storage mandates

Over in Brussels, policymakers have a different view: Amending EU Regulation, published on Wednesday last week, proposes to extend the gas storage requirements by another two years, arguing this would be needed to deliver on the REPowerEU plan which focusses on expanding underground storage capacity of gas, upgrading and extending LNG infrastructure; and diversifying both sources and routes of pipeline gas.

"To deliver on these objectives, the extension of some of the measures, mainly the November gas storage filling target, adopted previously for a limited period of time, is necessary," the regulatory document reads.

Gas-storage facilities provide for 30% of the Union’s gas consumption during the winter months, and EU policymakers are convinced the 90% filling rate is a “necessary and appropriate level" to ensure security of supply.

“The European gas market remains tight. The competition for global LNG supplies has increased and exposure to price volatility is stronger than before.”

“The gas price development during the 2024/2025 winter may confirm the trend,” EU policymakers argue, underlining: “In such situation, the role of gas storages remains paramount.”

European LNG buyers fail to significant attract more deliveries although prices were much higher in the first week of 2025 than early last year. “There is a stickiness in LNG trade flows to Asia,” Energy Aspects said, referring to structural demand growth and heavy demand for spot cargoes from less price-sensitive markets like Japan and South Korea.

Analysts at the London-based consultancy found that Asian LNG demand has so far only been growing by 6.0 million tons year-on year y in 2025, which is down from 16.1 Mt growth last year. But Europe still stays very reliant on the increments in global LNG supply to meet its minimum storage targets by end-October.

A price-sensitivity analysis on how much Asian gas markets can call on spot and divertible supply at different price levels, found that at $10–20 per MMBtu, a $1/MMBtu rise, equal to €3.24/MWh, in TTF prices only weakens non-European demand by 0.89 million tons per annum (mtpa).

“European prices are already near the top of the coal-to-gas fuel-switching range and we already expect Europe to just meet its storage targets, so a market tightening of 5 bcm (for example, from cold weather in Europe and Asia over Q1-25) could propel TTF prices up by around €13.50/MWh,” analysts commented.

Quick drawdown on inventories

Europe entered January with gas inventories at just 79.2 bcm, or 73% full – a decrease by 15.3 bcm y/y which makes it difficult to rebuilt stocks before the end of the gas year in October.

The fast-paced drawdown during the months of November and December 2024 had a substantial impact, considering lower Russian pipeline gas deliveries were not sufficiently offset by higher LNG deliveries and low demand. The stockdraw amounted to 25 bcm over the past two months, while Russian pipeline gas deliveries were 5.3 bcm, down from the five-year average of 18.2 bcm, while LNG receipts were up marginally to 22.6 bcm.

Analysts project Europe stocks to hit around 40 bcm (37% full) by end-March, anticipating further reductions in Russian pipeline gas supply through the first quarter of 2025 and gradually rising gas demand.

German energy company Uniper has postponed its target to invest €8 billion in the green energy transformation by 2030, citing a lack of demand for green hydrogen, CEO Michael Lewis told business daily FAZ. “As things stand, there are hardly any major customers who buy green hydrogen,” he said, noting Uniper has to “step on the brakes a little.”

Uniper now wants to reach its targeted investment volume “by the early 2030s” and focus on project “that make the greatest contribution from a strategic and financial perspective.” The Germain utility reiterated its aim to exit coal by 2029, though reaching its target of 80% renewables would become “very difficult,” Lewis conceded.

The British boss of the energy group Uniper urged the German government to introduce a lasting system of incentive for a certain volume of green hydrogen – alike the renewable support system. “There is a large gap between the price of natural gas and that of blue or even green hydrogen,” Lewis said, suggesting; “The state would have to agree to close this gap.”

The German coalition government aspires for hydrogen, especially the one produced via electrolysis from wind and solar power, to play a vital role in decarbonising the steel-making sector or the chemical industry as well as the transport sector. But hurdles for implementing and scaling up the technology are manifold, both from a technological and cost perspective.

The cost for storage and distribution may well make green hydrogen a “prohibitively expensive abatement strategy across many major sectors,” researchers from Harvard University warned. Listening to such warnings, Uniper revised its hydrogen strategy and other energy companies eye similar steps to slow down their exposure to a still expensive new fuel type.