LNG

European wholesale gas prices fell below €30 per MWh on Monday, a level not seen since February 2024, as expectations for a Ukraine peace deal put bearish pressure on prices. The Dec-2025 TTF contract also slipped below this threshold amid hopes that the EU’s proposed ban on Russian pipeline gas could be softened.

The Trump administration is working on ways to ease sanctions against Russia, if the war in Ukraine comes to an end. Greater LNG exports from Vysotsk, Portovaya and the first two 6.6 mtpa trains of Arctic LNG 2 facilities are seen as ‘options’ for the United States to offer a sanctions relief in exchange for peace.

London-based Energy Aspects remains bullish on TTF bal-2025 prices, assuming Russian gas exports to Europe do not return – at least not any time soon. Gazprom had terminated pipeline gas transits through Ukraine at the start of 2025, and Russian LNG is currently mainly reaching Europe via the Kremlin’s shadow fleet of ageing tankers.

Enabling Russian LNG exports under a US sanction relief would contradict American commercial interest and President Trump’s ‘energy dominance policy.’

Yet, foreign policy of the new US administration is anything but certain: “It is possible that Trump’s drive for peace and to see Russian gas return will override his energy dominance policy and desire to narrow the trade deficit with Europe. We are not yet making this our base case, as Trump has other sanctions relief measures he can deploy,” Energy Aspects stated, referring to options like loosening US financial and trade sanctions that impact the whole Russian economy.

Brokering a peace deal will take time, and may well be month away as the positions still differ starkly. The longer it takes, the less time would be left for Russian gas supply to help bolster Europe’s stock-build prior to the next winter.

Expiry of US Treasury waivers impact Russian exports via Turkey

Supply risks escalated after temporary US Treasury waivers that permit gas purchases via the now-sanctioned Gazprombank will lapsed.

The US Treasury confirmed the General License 8L expired as scheduled on Wednesday last week as the Trump administration is putting pressure on Russia to improve his and Ukraine’s stance in peace talks with the Kremlin. Letting the license expire means that Russian banks now can no longer access US payment systems for energy financing or transactions related to oil and gas exports.

If no alternative payment mechanisms can be agreed, Europe might lose out on the 16 bcm/y that is shipped to European buyers through TurkStream, the 24 bcm/y shipped to Turkey through TurkStream and Blue Stream pipelines. Moreover, the 38 bcm/y of Russian gas exported to China through Power of Siberia pipeline and potentially around 5–10 bcm/y transported to buyers in Central Asia is also at risk.

Doubts mount that the US Treasury will extend waivers following of Russia’s bombardment of Ukrainian gas and power infrastructure in recent weeks. Destructions and halted gas flows from Gazprom made Naftogaz turn to elsewhere for supply. Ukraine has, in fact, stepped up its imports from Europe over recent weeks and Energy Aspects expects it to take 1.7 bcm from Europe this year, in contrast to net exports of 0.7 bcm last year, cautioning there is “more upside than downside risk” to these numbers.