Asian LNG demand falls for second year as Qatar disruption bites
Asian LNG demand set to fall for a second consecutive year as Qatari supply disruption pushes spot prices to levels that force buyers to cut volumes and switch fuels. Wood Mackenzie forecasts Asia Pacific demand at 257 million tons (Mt) in 2026, down from 268 Mt in the previous year and a peak of 278 Mt in 2024.
Global gas demand slows markedly, amid high spot LNG prices
Weaker industrial activity and high LNG prices have slowed global gas demand markedly in 2025, the International Energy Agency (IEA) finds. Gas demand in the power sector grow by less than 1%, due to high spot LNG prices, improved nuclear availability in Asia and continued renewables growth.
Markets fear ripple-effects of Ras Laffan LNG’s loss of 12.8mt
Global LNG buyers fear far-reaching ripple effects of the loss of 12.8 million tons, or 17% of Qatari LNG after force majeure was declared on Ras Laffan Trains 4 and 6, with repairs taking three to five years. Markets see quite a bit of anxiety” from buyers in Japan, India, South Korea and Bangladesh which are heading up to buy spot cargoes, Poten & Partners’ senior LNG analysts Irwin Yeo observes.
LNG-related power prices in the Philippines could soar 16%
The Philippine government is regulating electricity rates to counter the risk of LNG-linked price inflation of up to 16 percent, amid Middle East shipping disruptions. Energy Secretary Sharon Garin is negotiating stable coal supplies from Indonesia to facilitate fuel switching and wants to temporarily cap spot power prices.
Asian LNG exporters to gain in prolonged Iran conflict; Fitch
Asia-Pacific energy exporters – notably Australia – stand to benefit first if the Iran conflict prolongs disruption to Qatari LNG supply as buyers scramble for replacement cargoes, Fitch Ratings said. Buyers are turning to producers in Australia and Indonesia, which offer immediate alternatives.
LNG gets ‘hard to attract’ to Europe
European LNG buyers fail to significant attract more deliveries although prices were much higher in the first week of 2025 than early last year. “There is a stickiness in LNG trade flows to Asia,” Energy Aspects said, referring to structural demand growth and heavy demand for spot cargoes from less price-sensitive markets like Japan and South Korea.
Analysts at the London-based consultancy found that Asian LNG demand has so far only been growing by 6.0 million tons year-on year y in 2025, which is down from 16.1 Mt growth last year. But Europe still stays very reliant on the increments in global LNG supply to meet its minimum storage targets by end-October.
A price-sensitivity analysis on how much Asian gas markets can call on spot and divertible supply at different price levels, found that at $10–20 per MMBtu, a $1/MMBtu rise, equal to €3.24/MWh, in TTF prices only weakens non-European demand by 0.89 million tons per annum (mtpa).
“European prices are already near the top of the coal-to-gas fuel-switching range and we already expect Europe to just meet its storage targets, so a market tightening of 5 bcm (for example, from cold weather in Europe and Asia over Q1-25) could propel TTF prices up by around €13.50/MWh,” analysts commented.
Quick drawdown on inventories
Europe entered January with gas inventories at just 79.2 bcm, or 73% full – a decrease by 15.3 bcm y/y which makes it difficult to rebuilt stocks before the end of the gas year in October.
The fast-paced drawdown during the months of November and December 2024 had a substantial impact, considering lower Russian pipeline gas deliveries were not sufficiently offset by higher LNG deliveries and low demand. The stockdraw amounted to 25 bcm over the past two months, while Russian pipeline gas deliveries were 5.3 bcm, down from the five-year average of 18.2 bcm, while LNG receipts were up marginally to 22.6 bcm.
Analysts project Europe stocks to hit around 40 bcm (37% full) by end-March, anticipating further reductions in Russian pipeline gas supply through the first quarter of 2025 and gradually rising gas demand.
BOTAS’ tender for 5 cargoes in Q1-25 supports EU gas market
Turkey’s incumbent gas importer BOTAS has issued a tender for delivery of five LNG cargoes in the first quarter of 2025 that will support the supply and demand balance in the EU gas market this winter. Analysts caution, however, Egypt’s new FSRU poses upside risk to non-European demand.
Upside for TTF Q1-25 prices on supply and cold weather risks
Prices at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), Europe’s most liquid gas trading hub, have risen due to a growing risk premium related to residual Russian flows or cold-weather events. The TTF Q1-25 contract is already pricing near the top of the coal–gas fuel-switching range in the power sector.
