LNG

The International Energy Agency said the structure of global natural gas markets has been altered by issues raised by the Ukraine conflict and will require still more  closer dialogue between producer and consumer nations to ensure the availability of short-term and long-term pipeline gas and LNG cargo volumes.

The IEA’s annual “Global Gas Security Review” also noted that tensions in the gas markets had eased “significantly” since the beginning of 2023.

The report coincided with the 12th LNG Producer and Consumer Conference in Tokyo involving the leading importers and exporters.

That Tokyo event was co-organised by the IEA and Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and has always provided a forum for discussions between natural gas and LNG producer and consumer countries.

The new IEA analysis noted that deeper coordination among market participants remained essential, given momentous shifts in how gas markets function.

The IEA’s latest assessment of market dynamics showed gas markets had moved towards a gradual rebalancing since the start of the year.

High inventories

The report stated that high inventory levels at storage sites in key Asian and European markets provide grounds for “cautious optimism” ahead of the 2023-24 winter heating season in the Northern Hemisphere.

“If injections continue at the average rate observed since mid-April, EU storage sites will reach 90 percent of their working capacity by early August and could be filled close to 100 percent by mid-September,” said the report.

“However, full storage sites are no guarantee against market volatility during the (coming) winter,” the report warned.

The Paris-based body said that there remained “major uncertainties” ahead of the upcoming heating season.

“A cold winter, together with a full halt in Russia piped gas supplies to Europe early in the heating season, could easily renew market tensions,” said the report.

“Fierce competition for gas supplies could also emerge if Northeast Asia experiences colder-than-usual weather and economic growth is stronger than expected in China,” the IEA added.

The security of global gas supplies remains at the forefront of energy policy making, with growing complexity for both the short and long term.

LNG surge

“LNG has become a baseload source of supply for Europe, with its share in total EU demand rising from an average of 12 percent over the 2010s to close to 35 percent in 2022 - similar to the contribution from Russia’s piped gas before the invasion of Ukraine,” said the report.

“Meanwhile, China’s balancing role in global gas markets is set to increase,” stated the IEA.

The report also explained that the “flexibility of gas supply” needed to be reassessed in light of the phase-out of Russian piped gas exports to the European Union.

As producers and consumers engage in closer dialogue to address these dynamics, the new IEA report recommended that they should explore the development of innovative commercial offerings, new procurement mechanisms and cooperative frameworks favouring a more flexible supply of LNG.

The new IEA report also includes a special focus on integrating low-emissions gases into energy systems.

“A new global gas market is taking shape after last year’s crisis. Given this, responsible producers and consumers must reconsider their approaches to supply security and flexibility, cooperating even more closely,” said Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s Director of Energy Markets and Security.

“Meaningful efforts are also needed to reduce the carbon footprint of gas supply chains, including through greater use of low-emissions gases,” added Sadamori.

Japanese demand

The report also focused on some individual nations and on the main regions.

In the case of Japan, the leading LNG importer's gas consumption decreased by 12 percent, or 4 billion cubic metres, in the first three months of 2023.

“Gas-fired power generation in the first three months declined by 16 percent (or 15 terawatt hours) according to data from the METI. This was primarily driven by lower electricity consumption, down by 6 percent year-over-year with improving nuclear availability,” said the IEA.

“Japan’s nuclear power output rose by 47 percent (or 12 TWh) in the first half of 2023. In addition, city-gas sales for commercial and industrial use decreased by 3 percent and 12 percent respectively,” added the report.

“For 2023 Japan’s gas demand is forecast to decrease by about 5 percent compared with the previous year,” the IEA stated.

Japanese liquefied natural gas deliveries declined by almost 10 percent last month even as close to record deliveries were made by Australia and thermal coal was the preferred fuel over LNG for power generation.

Woodside Energy, the operator of the Northwest Shelf LNG plant and the Pluto LNG facility in Western Australia, posted soaring annual net profits because of higher prices and the benefits of the merger with commodities giant BHP’s petroleum business.

Natural gas wholesale futures prices in Europe broke records for a second day in a market of contrasts as sky-high prices for spot LNG carrier charters have finally crashed for both the East of Suez and West of Suez markets and by up to $70,000 per day.

The Japanese Finance Ministry has provided official confirmation that liquefied natural gas imports dropped in 2019 with only Australian and US and spot cargo numbers improving, while in December LNG shipments declined as thermal coal imports surged.

Flex LNG, the growing shipping company with six vessels operating and seven others on order and whose largest shareholder is a company controlled by Norwegian magnate John Fredriksen, has entered into a new time charter in what is its second deal in a month.

Japanese spot liquefied natural gas cargoes delivered in August cost $4.30 per million British thermal units less than in the same month a year ago, though $0.80 more than in July 2019 amid an over-supplied market.

Singapore LNG spot cargo prices dropped half a percentage point on the week from already low levels with only Asian and Middle East cargoes for delivery in the second half of November maintaining values over US$5.000 per million British thermal units amid ample supplies.

Japanese government figures show that spot liquefied natural gas cargo prices for Northeast Asia have risen by more than $2 per million British thermal units in the past year.

Japanese government figures show that the average delivered price of spot liquefied natural gas shipments arriving in Japan was $1.40 per million British thermal units higher at $5.70 per MMBtu in May compared with $4.30 per MMBtu in the same month of 2016.