LNG

An early cold wave across northern China is lifting LNG and pipeline gas demand, adding upside risk to the JKM-TTF price spread for balance-of-winter 2025/26. Several cities have started district heating early which boosts gas demand and increases the need for LNG imports.

Trump trade policies could deeply impact global gas markets: “His opening salvo in a US-China trade war has been fired, with 10% tariffs on Chinese goods and retaliatory 15% tariffs on US LNG, while his stance on Russia remains unclear," Rystad Energy commented. Closer to home, Trump's 10% tariff on Canadian gas drives up prices, squeezes profit margins of smaller producers and could potentially lead to production cuts and delayed investments.