Gasunie has warned the Netherlands will not meet its 115 TWh gas storage target for this winter. Storage is currently just 44-45% full, the lowest since 2009, as utilities shy away from buying LNG at current high prices.
Stalled US-Iran negotiations are manifesting LNG price premiums this autumn, with the average price for an October cargo delivered to Northeast Asia forecast at $22.50 per MMBtu. The geopolitical premium is firmly engrained in global LNG markets, fuelling a bullish sentiment in Asia where the price of delivered LNG increased by$0.85/MMBtu week-on-week to nearly$22.10/MMBtu.
High-risk operators of LNG carriers are seen exploiting a shortage of shipowners willing to transit Hormuz. At least four very large gas carriers with a history of carrying Iranian LPG have loaded cargoes in the UAE and Qatar in recent weeks, according to Lloyd’s Lists findings with analysts noting that before the conflicts, it was rare for vessels linked to sanctioned trades to re-enter mainstream markets.
Two LNG tankers seem to have conducted a ship-to-ship (STS) transfer outside the Strait of Hormuz, as suppliers seek to keep fuel moving from inside the Persian Gulf to global markets.
Soaring LNG trade flows from the US and Canada have offset around 70% of the lost supply via the Strait of Hormuz, though further military escalations in the region and delays in restoring Qatari exports keeps could prolong market tightness into 2027, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns.
Security costs rather than freight fundamentals are increasingly determining LNG shipping economics. Owners face "between 6 and 10 million dollars for every single shipment" before vessels enter the Strait of Hormuz, simply to secure additional insurance cover, said Tom Beney, Senior Vice President of Ocean Freight at StoneX.
Woodfibre LNG, positioned as the world’s first net zero LNG export facility, is more than halfway complete and targets end-2027 for in-service, CEO Luke Schauerte said. Addressing potential labour shortages, he told BNN Bloomberg the project is “in a really good spot (…) sort of between the waves of building.”
Limited shipbuilding capacity in South Korea and China could slow down a record expansion of global LNG supply. One of the industry’s dependencies – the ability to physically move gas – rests on a supply chain it cannot control and cannot quickly replicate, Ikram Elloumi, director of research at Wood Mackenzie warns.
Designating the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and the Montney formation as “strategic national assets” would help reduce feedgas risk and uncertainty facing Canada’s LNG sector today, Ottawa-based Public Policy Forum said in a report on unlocking LNG export potential.
A suspected drone strike on a merchant vessel near the Strait of Hormuz is testing a fragile U.S.–Iran framework agreement to restore shipping flows through one of the world’s most critical energy corridors, with implications for LNG trade.