LNG

Falling fertility rates and an early peak in global population are set to reshape LNG demand, reinforcing its role in power generation while capping broader growth in gas consumption. Global population could peak at around 8.9 billion by 2053, earlier and lower than previously forecast, as fertility rates decline from 2.6 births per woman in 2007 to around 2.2 today, according to Wood Mackenzie. China’s population is already 9.6 million below the UN’s 2024 projection, underscoring the speed of demographic change.

Asian countries are stepping up investment in domestic energy to curb reliance on imported LNG, as energy security overtakes cost following the three-month disruption of the Strait of Hormuz. China, India and Pakistan are accelerating spending on coal, renewables and nuclear power to reduce exposure to LNG imports.

Southeast Asian nations have agreed deepen cooperation in renewable energy, natural gas and LNG, though fell short on specifying binding targets or projects. Analysts say ASEAN’s emphasis on LNG reflects both immediate energy security concerns and longer-term transition strategies.  Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines, are increasing LNG import capacity to offset declining domestic gas production, reduce reliance on coal while transitioning to a lower-carbon energy system.

Vietnam’s Vingroup has proposed scrapping plans for what would have been the country’s largest LNG-fired power plant and replacing it with a renewable‑plus‑battery scheme, as soaring LNG prices make the 4.8 GW Hai Phong venture financially unviable.

Weaker industrial activity and high LNG prices have slowed global gas demand markedly in 2025, the International Energy Agency (IEA) finds. Gas demand in the power sector grow by less than 1%, due to high spot LNG prices, improved nuclear availability in Asia and continued renewables growth.

China’s emissions have peaked ahead of schedule, having been flat or falling for nearly two years, with LNG imports down sharply amid a renewables (RES) surge that reshaped the power sector. According to Carbon Brief figures, emission fell in the power, transport cement, and metals sectors – offset by rises in petrochemicals-related emissions.

Global climate finance commitments remain stuck at $100 billion annually – far below the $300 billion target. The widening finance gap and slow coordination on carbon policy translate into a growing role of LNG in Asia’s energy mix, particularly in emerging markets.

Burning LNG to balance renewable energy is ‘key’ to exit coal-fired power generation in Asia, a new study by S&P Global Commodity Insights finds. The average lifecycle carbon intensity for LNG sourced from Australia, the US and Qatar and used for electricity production in the study countries was 47% lower than for coal.

Singapore is at the heart of an evolving regional power grid which is poised to lower the share of LNG-fuelled power generation. If all proposed interconnections get built, they could unlock up to 25 GW of renewable and energy storage capacity worth over $40 billion, Rystad Energy reckons.

Today, over 96% of Singapore’s electricity is generated by burning natural gas which needs to be imported as LNG. Yet, Rystad analysis finds that importing electricity through the regional grid is cost-effective for the city state and could help reduce CO2 emissions by 13 million tons per year.

Higher load factor helps reduce electricity cost

Though CCGT are flexible and reliable in terms of operation, comparing the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) reveals that electricity imports via ASEAN interconnectors may offer a more cost-effective alternative to building new domestic CCGT capacity. Singapore’s Electricity Market Authority (EMA) current regulatory framework require projects to reach an annual load factor of at least 60% within five years of commercial operation. For project developers there is a strong economic incentive to exceed this target.

Raising the load factor target from 60% to 100% could lower the overall LCOE, as this helps spread transmission costs more equally. This impact is particularly significant in countries such as Malaysia (Sarawak), Cambodia and Vietnam, where long transmission distances amplify cost optimization benefits particularly for hydropower projects

Solar-plus-storage hybrid systems, with optimized direct current/alternating current (DC/AC) configurations and appropriately sized battery energy storage systems (BESS), can already achieve load factors above 90%. By integrating solar and BESS technologies with the necessary backups, these systems can reach the level of reliability required by Singapore’s EMA and could be comparable to other dispatchable energy sources.

“Hybrid systems could deliver lower LCOEs than many in the industry currently anticipate. Singapore, strategically positioned at the heart of this evolving energy system, stands to gain significantly,” said Rystad’s renewables analysts Nevi Cahya Winofa.

Though the Department of Energy (DOE) reckons the Philippines two new LNG terminals will have “no problem in securing supply” once opened in March and April, analysts revised down the country’s LNG imports. High global gas prices are pressuring utilities to use less LNG for power generation, as higher renewables and coal generation suffices to meet demand.