LNG

A record wave of LNG capacity coming online by 2030 is shifting the market’s binding constraint from supply to demand, with small-scale LNG (SSLNG) increasingly viewed not just as a niche segment but as a demand-creation tool.

Record US natural gas production and sustained sub-$3.50/MMBtu Henry Hub prices are set to strengthen the economics of both LNG export expansions and new gas-fired power projects and, even as global demand tightens.

Japan’s JERA is stepping up its LNG-to-power strategy across Asia, offering term LNG shipments and project finance. For India’s Torrent Power, JERA will deliver four cargoes per year from 2027 to fuel 2,730 MW gas-fired powergen capacity along with some city-gas demand.

Canada has moved closer to unlocking a new Pacific Coast crude outlet from Alberta while fast-tracking British Columbia LNG projects with the aim of tripping LNG production and export beyond 2030.

Cash-rich incumbents are leading the next wave of brownfield US LNG expansions, as the Iran war has escalated project costs, disproportionately disadvantaging greenfield projects – such as Argent LNG – that lack existing infrastructure.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company’s (ADNOC) is exploring investments in Canada’s upstream and LNG sectors through its affiliate XRG, upstream CEO Musabbeh Al Kaabi said at the at the Global Energy Show in Calgary this week.

ExxonMobil has been authorised to develop a $5.09 billion LNG terminal and adjacent gas-fuelled power plant in the Vietnamese port city of Hai Phong. The LNG import terminal is approved with a capacity of 6 mtpa, enough to fuel 2.25 GW of power generation capacity that is scheduled to start operations by 2026/27.

Equity investors in US LNG projects are vary of margins squeezed by higher US gas prices vs lower global spot prices. Debt finance is still forthcoming supported by the Trump administrations overtly pro-gas policies, Wood Mackenzie finds.

Santos has been jolted by a setback as Abu-Dhabi’s state-backed XRG walked away from $30 billion tie-up. The breakdown shatters Santos’ expectations to secure capital for expansion projects in Australia and Papua New Guinea.

Scepticism abounds as to whether US LNG exports projects will gain traction following President Trump’s executive order to resume approvals for LNG exports to non-FTA countries. Analysts see this move as a “reshuffling” of which pre-FID projects are most likely to be sanctioned – not as an actual change to the number of FIDs.

“US LNG projects compete in a global market, and each additional FID draws on additional, higher-cost supplies, eroding their economic competitiveness,” commented Rystad Energy’s senior vice president, Oil & Gas Research, Amber McCullagh.

To-date, American LNG projects largely rely on feedgas from the Haynesville shale, where the remaining Tier 1 inventory is limited and ownership of acreage is increasingly consolidated among the largest operators. Appalachia shale, in contrast, is home to the most untapped gas reserves – but moving these molecules to the coast for liquefaction and export is deemed “prohibitively expensive.”

“Trump is likely to push for permitting reforms, but such changes would require an act of Congress, which saw some bipartisan interest in the last session,” she noted, indicating the actual revision or withdrawal of former President Biden’s pause on approving non-FTA export licenses will be limited. Biden’s action halted momentum on several projects that had previously been close to taking final investment decision which sparked fierce criticism from the industry.

Outlook of gas-fired generation uncertain

Regardless of Trump’s rush to declare a ‘National Energy Emergency’ on his first day in office, analysts caution the President’s “drill, baby, drill” mantra overestimates the industry’s willingness to prioritize growth over investor returns in light of Tier 1 inventory depletion in core oil basins after 2030.

Speeding up permitting on federal land may incentivise some operators to produce more oil and gas, though volume growth is expected to be marginal and mostly used as feedgas for LNG export projects. Gas-fired power generation, on the other hand, may not benefit much as domestic gas prices are unlikely to recede sufficiently to make burning gas more competitive than unabated coal in some areas, let alone renewables.

“Trump signalled he would block new offshore wind leases, but these are unlikely to meaningfully impact the US generation mix,” McCullgah commented, adding: “Removing subsidies for wind and solar generation would have a more significant impact, but such a move would also require Congressional approval, and Republicans’ margins are very small in the House of Representatives.”

Nontheless, momentum in gas-fired generation is already in place, so rising domestic fossil fuel demand is likely – especially since utilities struggle to meet rising electricity demand from data centers and e-vehicles, and are hard pressed to provide sufficient dispatchable generation for balancing power.