LNG

Oil and gas prices have risen sharply after details emerged on drone attacks damaging Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude pipeline, which transports oil from the kingdom’s eastern fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. The pipeline recently carried around 4 million barrels per day, and had to shut down following the incident.

UK NBP front-month November gas rose more than 5% to 208.36 pence per therm on the news, while Brent crude climbed above $108 a barrel.

European gas prices at the Dutch TTF may need to top €100/MWh to attract enough flexible US LNG cargoes to refill storages ahead of the winter, Goldman Sachs analysts said.

U.S. LNG feedgas demand is weakening with Freeport LNG pulling nominations down to about 1 bcf/d as major maintenance began on July 10, while Golden Pass has also been showing erratic feedgas behaviour during ramp-up.

Henry Hub cash and bal-summer price are set to soften as additional Texas-to-Louisiana pipeline capacity boosts LNG feedgas flows towards the US Gulf Coast, easing oversupply in Texas.

Bullishness abounds for LNG prices and winter 2026/27 contracts at Europe’s benchmark TTF gas trading hub after US President Donald Trump threatened to impose a US toll on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. For spot prices, the sell-off after the peace memorandum was short-lived.

Global oil and LNG shocks are likely to abate following a comprehensive US-Iran peace deal, but embedded inflation and second-round effects are just beginning, Fitch Rating warns. Global inflation likely peaked in the second quarter of 2026, analysts said, but knock-on effects from the initial jump in energy prices threaten to keep inflation elevated in several markets.

Tehran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz immediately after the US and Iran signed a memorandum to end the conflict in Versailles late on June 17 – earlier than planned. Oil and gas prices fell sharply on the news, and LNG benchmarks trimmed the geopolitical risk premium that has buoyed them since the conflict intensified.

Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will result in a “quick drop in prices,” though Fitch Rating assumes a five-month closure of the critical waterway through July. Oil markets began to balance in the interim thanks to pipelines, but LNG cargoes stay largely trapped.

As Asian netbacks for delivered LNG cargoes outbid European prices, buyers are struggling to attract sufficient volumes to offset a looming storage shortfall. An additional 40 cargoes per month would be needed over the next five months, according to ICIS calculations, though economists doubt this is achievable.

An US-Iran peace deal resolution is expected “very soon,” Pakistan’s foreign ministry says – which would hit future prices immediately – but physical LNG and oil flows, deliveries, and broader supply normalization would lag by weeks, Rystad Energy cautions.