LNG

U.S. LNG feedgas demand is weakening with Freeport LNG pulling nominations down to about 1 bcf/d as major maintenance began on July 10, while Golden Pass has also been showing erratic feedgas behaviour during ramp-up.

Henry Hub cash and bal-summer price are set to soften as additional Texas-to-Louisiana pipeline capacity boosts LNG feedgas flows towards the US Gulf Coast, easing oversupply in Texas.

Bullishness abounds for LNG prices and winter 2026/27 contracts at Europe’s benchmark TTF gas trading hub after US President Donald Trump threatened to impose a US toll on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. For spot prices, the sell-off after the peace memorandum was short-lived.

Global oil and LNG shocks are likely to abate following a comprehensive US-Iran peace deal, but embedded inflation and second-round effects are just beginning, Fitch Rating warns. Global inflation likely peaked in the second quarter of 2026, analysts said, but knock-on effects from the initial jump in energy prices threaten to keep inflation elevated in several markets.

Tehran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz immediately after the US and Iran signed a memorandum to end the conflict in Versailles late on June 17 – earlier than planned. Oil and gas prices fell sharply on the news, and LNG benchmarks trimmed the geopolitical risk premium that has buoyed them since the conflict intensified.

Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will result in a “quick drop in prices,” though Fitch Rating assumes a five-month closure of the critical waterway through July. Oil markets began to balance in the interim thanks to pipelines, but LNG cargoes stay largely trapped.

As Asian netbacks for delivered LNG cargoes outbid European prices, buyers are struggling to attract sufficient volumes to offset a looming storage shortfall. An additional 40 cargoes per month would be needed over the next five months, according to ICIS calculations, though economists doubt this is achievable.

An US-Iran peace deal resolution is expected “very soon,” Pakistan’s foreign ministry says – which would hit future prices immediately – but physical LNG and oil flows, deliveries, and broader supply normalization would lag by weeks, Rystad Energy cautions.

QatarEnergies is working towards restarting some LNG trains at Ras Laffan, as shipping disruptions are anticipated to ease by the end of April. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until July or beyond, however, analysts reckon prices at the Dutch TTF gas trading hub would need to rise to well above 2022-levels for Europe be able to refill storages.

The Philippine government is regulating electricity rates to counter the risk of LNG-linked price inflation of up to 16 percent, amid Middle East shipping disruptions. Energy Secretary Sharon Garin is negotiating stable coal supplies from Indonesia to facilitate fuel switching and wants to temporarily cap spot power prices.