LNG

Premiums are being paid to secure scarce LNG carrier yard slots as shipyards in South Korea and China struggle to keep up with surging demand for newbuild vessels, according to market sources. Deferrals of 17 LNG carriers linked to the Mozambique LNG project, freed up sought-after slots at Samsung Heavy Industries and HD Hyundai Samho.

The Hormuz risk premium has washed out of gas prices since the US-Iran understanding, leaving TTF and JKM far below their March crisis peaks. The physical data does not yet justify it. Combined Qatari and Emirati exports across the strait reached barely a tenth of normal in June, and the downside remains live.

US LNG exporters are selling cargoes abroad at prices roughly twice the Henry Hub benchmark, allowing export demand to set a higher clearing price in the domestic power market. Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows the average LNG export sale price was $7.87 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) in 2025 versus $3.66/Mcf for Henry Hub.

European wholesale gas prices fell below €30 per MWh on Monday, a level not seen since February 2024, as expectations for a Ukraine peace deal put bearish pressure on prices. The Dec-2025 TTF contract also slipped below this threshold amid hopes that the EU’s proposed ban on Russian pipeline gas could be softened.

Venture Global is advancing talks to ship more LNG cargoes from its Plaquemines terminal in Louisiana to Ukraine’s largest private energy company DTEK, as the war-torn country scrambles to secure energy this winter. Delivered gas could cost a premium to spot LNG imports into northern Europe.  

The EU is paying a premium price for LNG as pipeline gas imports fell 9% in the first half of this year. LNG imports cost around 26.9 billion Euros over the same period, with 13.7 billion Euros of that paid for US cargoes.

Escalating tensions between Israel and Iran have pushed up crude oil prices to nearly $75 per barrel. The geopolitical risk premium has soared to around $8 per barrel, impacting oil-indexed natural gas contracts as well as term LNG deliveries.

The outlook hinges on Iran’s response. If the regime in Teheran keeps airstrikes focussed on Israeli military sites, as seen in past episodes, price increases may remain contained and temporary, Rystad analysts reckon. But if Iran escalates by disrupting crude oil and LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, or attacks regional energy infrastructure, prices could go through the roof.

In an undisguised threat, US President Donald Trump warned the Iranian regime to stay clear on attacking American military bases in the Middle East, or face dire consequences. 

Nautical chokepoint

The Strait of Hormuz – a key nautical route between the Mediterranean and the Red Sea – is the chokepoint in this scenario. Around 12 million barrels per day of crude oil pass through the strait, over 80% of it bound for Asia. Additionally, over 3.5 billion cubic feet (bfc) of natural gas, or 18% of world shipments, travel through the strait onboard of LNG tankers.

Though there is a pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, the capacity of that pipeline is limited. Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline and the UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah oil pipeline together can handle around half of the flow. As for natural gas, the Abqaiq-Yanbu pipeline runs parallel to the East-West Petroline in Saudi Arabia, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Its capacity is 290,000 barrels per day, carrying primarily gas liquids.

To date, Iran never succeeded in blocking the Strait of Hormuz which is jointly controlled with Oman. Past tactics included seizing or harassing tankers by jamming their GPS signals to draw them into Iranian waters.

“If Iran were to attempt a full-scale blockade of the Strait, it would likely face strong international pushback,” Rystad head of geopolitical analysis Jorge León warns. Retaliatory actions are to be expected particularly from countries of the Gulf Cooperation Counci, comprising Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

Even Iran’s key ally, China, would be hit hard by higher oil and LNG prices, he underlined, stressing such a move would isolate Iran politically and economically.

Beware shipping rates

Peter Sand, Xeneta chief analyst takes a similar view: “Any closure of the Strait of Hormuz would see services re-routed, with increased reliance on India West Coast ports for connecting the Far East to Indian sub-continent,” he noted. The inevitable disruption and port congestion, as well as the potential for higher oil prices, would cause a spike in ocean freight container and LNG shipping rates.

Average spot rates from Far East to North Europe are up 62% since early December 2023, just before escalation in the Red Sea, while average spot rates to US East Coast – another trade that would ordinarily transit the Suez Canal – are up a staggering 165%, analysts pointed out.

Prices at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), Europe’s most liquid gas trading hub, have risen due to a growing risk premium related to residual Russian flows or cold-weather events. The TTF Q1-25 contract is already pricing near the top of the coal–gas fuel-switching range in the power sector.

Front-month price at the TTF, Europe’s most liquid gas trading hub, is recalibrating after a bid from Egypt’s EGAS for 20 LNG cargoes for October-December delivery had tightened supply. With the EGAS tender fully awarded – at a premium to the TTF – the market is now less tense and October gas futures were last seen trading below $11.26/MMBtu.

Prices of delivered LNG into North-East Asia, the world’s premium gas market, are converging for oil-linked contracts and those indexed to the US Henry Hub. Most of recent term oil-linked deals for cargoes shipped to Asia have been in the 12.0%-12.5% DES range, while volumes available earlier from post-FID projects are attracting a premium.