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Moody’s lowers outlook for Europe's regulated energy networks
Costly investment programmes to facilitate Europe’s green energy transition are weakening the credit metrics of regulated gas and electricity networks. Moody’s Ratings hence changed the outlook of European TSOs to ‘negative’ from ‘stable’.
Transparent and established regulation still supports credit quality, but regulators struggle to facilitate infrastructure investment at an affordable cost. “If shareholders consider allowed returns or cost recovery mechanisms to be insufficient, then support will fall short of maintaining credit quality,” analysts commented.
Europe's power grids and gas network operators are hard pressed to handle the substantial growth in load-related Capex required, and planned investments, said Phil Cope, senior credit officer at Moody’s Ratings.“Pressing demands arise from the need to grid-connect more renewables and accommodate rising volumes of electricity demand other sectors, e.g. heating (heat pumps), transport (electric vehicles), and data centres, where demands for capacity will intensify to support the growth in AI,” he explained.
Capital spending has grown significantly in recent years: Five-year Capex guidance for many networks – especially electricity transmission – is at least double that of five years ago. The current regulatory framework allows many gas and power network operators to recover investment over 20 to 50 years. But analysts warn the surge in Capex dwarfs the rise to network companies’ operating cash flow and this, in turn, weakens cash-flow based credit metrics.
TenneT, the TSO handling the power grid in the Netherlands and part of Germany, has seen its five-year Capex guidance soar from €40 billion in 2023 to over €62 billion this year – with no end in sight. The Belgian/German network operator Elia, meanwhile, has seen the same Capex metric almost double from around €16 billion to €30 billion over the same period.
The French and Spanish utilities ENGIE and Iberdrola have either increased or stated their intention to rise their exposure to regulated electricity networks. Moody’s reckons this is because they aim to improve their risk profile by benefitting from the “growth in higher quality earnings” as these networks carry out their investment programs. Others, notably SSE of Scotland and the German regional utility EnBW have reduced their exposure by selling their minority stakes in their power transmission businesses in recent years.
