Soaring LNG trade flows from the US and Canada have offset around 70% of the lost supply via the Strait of Hormuz, though further military escalations in the region and delays in restoring Qatari exports keeps could prolong market tightness into 2027, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns.

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India’s power-sector LNG buying stays high into June as utilities scramble to offset missing term cargoes. None of India’s 16 GW gas-grid connected powergen capacity received contracted Qatari LNG cargoes in April and May, amid widespread heatwaves. Provisional June data indicate the shortfall persisted, keeping spot procurement at unusually high levels.

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Five US LNG projects are set to start operations and ramp up productions by the end of 2027, adding nearly 30% to the country’s current peak export capacity of 18.3 bcf/d and helping offset 10 Bcf/d of damaged Qatari export capacity, according to US government analysts.

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Europe's latest episode of dark and almost wind-still weather – dubbed Dunkelflaute – has once again highlighted the importance of flexible gas generation. Low wind speeds since early November reduced wind power output by 40% yoy, or nearly 15 TWh compared to November 2024, IEA figures show and that shortfall was largely offset by flexible gas power plants ramping up output by 65% yoy, or 13 TWh.

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