LNG

The US Department of Energy (DOE) has authorized Venture Global to ramp up LNG exports from its Plaquemines terminal by an additional 0.45 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) to non-free trade agreement (non-FTA) countries – a 13% increase.

Commonwealth LNG, majority-owned by Kimmeridge, has received a 20-year regulatory permit to export LNG to countries without free trade agreements (non‑FTA) with the United States, adding to a 25-year FTA export permit. Both authorizations will become effective once the LNG terminal starts commercial operations, or within seven years of issuance.

Sempra has asked the US Department of Energy (DOE) to extend the export deadline for its $2.5 billion Energia Costa Azul LNG terminal on Mexico’s Pacific Coast. Construction delays push back commissioning to September 21, 2026.

Commonwealth LNG is progressing towards a final investment decision (FID) following final approval from the US Department of Energy (DOE) to export up to 1.21 Bcf/d of LNG to non-free trade agreement (FTA) countries. With all permits now in hand, Kimmeridge is gearing up for an FID in Q3-2025.

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s (FERC) final order for Commonwealth LNG is affirming the authorisation of its 9.5 mpta LNG export terminal to be built along Calcasieu Ship Channel near Cameron, Louisiana. With FERC’s final order in place the $11 billion project can now go ahead.

Venture Global is headed towards taking a final investment decision (FID) for its Calcasieu Pass 2 project after receving a critical export authorization. The terminal’s initial phase has firm offtake agreements with ExxonMobil, Chevron, New Fortress Energy, JERA, China Gas, Inpex, SEFE and EnBW.

Trump trade policies could deeply impact global gas markets: “His opening salvo in a US-China trade war has been fired, with 10% tariffs on Chinese goods and retaliatory 15% tariffs on US LNG, while his stance on Russia remains unclear," Rystad Energy commented. Closer to home, Trump's 10% tariff on Canadian gas drives up prices, squeezes profit margins of smaller producers and could potentially lead to production cuts and delayed investments.

Scepticism abounds as to whether US LNG exports projects will gain traction following President Trump’s executive order to resume approvals for LNG exports to non-FTA countries. Analysts see this move as a “reshuffling” of which pre-FID projects are most likely to be sanctioned – not as an actual change to the number of FIDs.

“US LNG projects compete in a global market, and each additional FID draws on additional, higher-cost supplies, eroding their economic competitiveness,” commented Rystad Energy’s senior vice president, Oil & Gas Research, Amber McCullagh.

To-date, American LNG projects largely rely on feedgas from the Haynesville shale, where the remaining Tier 1 inventory is limited and ownership of acreage is increasingly consolidated among the largest operators. Appalachia shale, in contrast, is home to the most untapped gas reserves – but moving these molecules to the coast for liquefaction and export is deemed “prohibitively expensive.”

“Trump is likely to push for permitting reforms, but such changes would require an act of Congress, which saw some bipartisan interest in the last session,” she noted, indicating the actual revision or withdrawal of former President Biden’s pause on approving non-FTA export licenses will be limited. Biden’s action halted momentum on several projects that had previously been close to taking final investment decision which sparked fierce criticism from the industry.

Outlook of gas-fired generation uncertain

Regardless of Trump’s rush to declare a ‘National Energy Emergency’ on his first day in office, analysts caution the President’s “drill, baby, drill” mantra overestimates the industry’s willingness to prioritize growth over investor returns in light of Tier 1 inventory depletion in core oil basins after 2030.

Speeding up permitting on federal land may incentivise some operators to produce more oil and gas, though volume growth is expected to be marginal and mostly used as feedgas for LNG export projects. Gas-fired power generation, on the other hand, may not benefit much as domestic gas prices are unlikely to recede sufficiently to make burning gas more competitive than unabated coal in some areas, let alone renewables.

“Trump signalled he would block new offshore wind leases, but these are unlikely to meaningfully impact the US generation mix,” McCullgah commented, adding: “Removing subsidies for wind and solar generation would have a more significant impact, but such a move would also require Congressional approval, and Republicans’ margins are very small in the House of Representatives.”

Nontheless, momentum in gas-fired generation is already in place, so rising domestic fossil fuel demand is likely – especially since utilities struggle to meet rising electricity demand from data centers and e-vehicles, and are hard pressed to provide sufficient dispatchable generation for balancing power.

As the Department of Energy (DOE) issued the first LNG export permit to non-FTA countries following a month-long pause, analysts forecast North America’s LNG export capacity could double by 2028 – if projects under construction begin operations as planned. The DOE just granted a permit to New Fortress Energy’s floating liquefaction plant offshore Altamira.

NFE had to delay shipment of the first cargo in July but subsequently exported several LNG cargoes from Altamira to countries with a free trade agreement (FTA) in place. Now, NFE has been authorized to also export LNG to countries that have no free trade agreement with the United States, which include all EU member states as well as Japan and India, among others. The permit is expected to boost Altamira’s exports to up to 1.4 million metric tons through to August 2029, a potential 3% rise.

Commenting on the recent permit for NFE’s Altamira LNG export terminal, assistant DOE secretary or the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management, Brad Crabtree, noted: “These re-exports can diversify global LNG supplies and improve energy security for U.S. allies and trading partners.”

Despite this positive development, it needs to be said that NFE initially requested for their export term to last until the end of 2050 – twenty years longer than what they were granted by the regulator. This term will be re-evaluated in time, allowing NFE to file for an extension after a minimum of two years.

What’s in the making

North America’s total LNG export capacity is on track to more than double from 11.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) last year to 24.4 Bcf/d in 2028. Over the coming four years, EIA analysts estimate LNG export capacity will grow by 0.8 Bcf/d in Mexico, 2.5 Bcf/d in Canada, and 9.7 Bcf/d in the United States from a total of 10 new projects that are currently under construction in these three countries.

Five US projects, with 9.7 Bcf/d capacity combined, that are currently under construction include Plaquemines (Phase I and Phase II), Corpus Christi Stage III, Golden Pass, Rio Grande Phase I, and Port Arthur Phase I. Developers expect to produce the first LNG from Plaquemines LNG and Corpus Christi LNG Stage III and ship first cargoes from these projects by the end of 2024.

In Canada, three projects with 2.5 Bcf/d capacity combined are in the making in British Columbia on Canada’s west coast – all supplied with natural gas from western Canada. Developers of the massive 1.8 Bcf/d LNG Canada plan to export a first cargo from Train 1 in the summer 2025. The 0.3 Bcf/d Woodfibre LNG terminal targets aims for a 2027 start-up while the 0.4 Bcf/d Cedar FLNG project reached a final investment decision (FID) in June 2024 and expects to start LNG exports in 2028.