APAC utilities can only absorb ‘brief’ supply shock; Fitch
Fitch Rating reckons utilities in Asia Pacific can only a absorb a “short-lived fuel-supply disruption” linked to the Iran conflict. KEPCO and KOGAS rely heavily on imported LNG, so sustained shortages persist will weigh heavy on utilities balance sheets, analysts warn.
US gas pricing reveals tightening upstream-to-LNG margin
LNG is driving the bulk of US gas demand growth with Gulf Coast capacity additions pushing exports from 15.5 billion cubic feet per day towards 25 Bcf/d by 2028. Henry Hub prices indicate healthy but tightening upstream‑to‑LNG margins from Haynesville, and especially Permian associated gas.
Higher margin, lower emission gives US LNG an edge over coal
US LNG outperforms coal in economic terms and carbon intensity when evaluated over its full lifecycle for power generation. Two-thirds of US LNG originates from Haynesville and Northeast basins, where drier gas production with less associated liquids create more favourable emission profiles, Wood Mackenzie finds.
LNG exporters face margin squeeze due to drop in oil prices
Oil-indexed LNG exporters brace for a squeeze in profit margins as ICE Brent crude oil prices fell to $65 per barrel on October 5, down from $70/bbl at last week’s high, after OPEC announced a production increase on Sunday. Rystad Energy reckons ICE Brent will unlikely to hold above $60-65/bbl in 2026 unless OPEC+ adjusts its sanctions on Russia and Iran severely limits exports.
Trade war takes its toll on Fitch’s sector outlook for Oil & Gas
Fitch Ratings has revising down EBITDA margins for global corporates to below 18%, down 0.5pp from forecasts in early 2025. For the oil & gas sector, Fitch changed its outlook from ‘neutral’ to ‘deteriorating’ after the rating agency already cut its global GDP growth projections in April due to the uncertainty surrounding US tariffs.
