LNG

Global oil and LNG shocks are likely to abate following a comprehensive US-Iran peace deal, but embedded inflation and second-round effects are just beginning, Fitch Rating warns. Global inflation likely peaked in the second quarter of 2026, analysts said, but knock-on effects from the initial jump in energy prices threaten to keep inflation elevated in several markets.

Southeast Asian countries with historically low gas storage levels have resorted to panic buying of spot LNG cargoes. Analysts warn a “vicious feedback loop” could weaken domestic purchasing power and further exacerbate energy price inflation.

The Philippine government is regulating electricity rates to counter the risk of LNG-linked price inflation of up to 16 percent, amid Middle East shipping disruptions. Energy Secretary Sharon Garin is negotiating stable coal supplies from Indonesia to facilitate fuel switching and wants to temporarily cap spot power prices.

Natural gas prices in the US are set to rise as more LNG gets exported and gas-burn in the electric power sector increases seasonally. Henry Hub spot price are forecast to average nearly $4.20/MMBtu in the third quarter of 2025 – almost double the price from a year earlier.