LNG

The European Commission is considering introducing gas price caps, enhanced power purchase agreements (PPA) or contracts for difference (CfD) to shield industry and households from soaring energy costs caused by the halt in Middle Eastern LNG deliveries.

Bridging the cost gap between green and grey hydrogen will require public grants and operating subsidies – impacting LNG demand growth. Displacing half of current fossil-based hydrogen (H2) with low-emissions alternatives would reduce associated gas needs by up to 150 bcm per year, equivalent to 6% of global gas demand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) finds.

Freeport LNG Development, majority-owned by founder and CEO Michael Smith, has ramped down operations in the wake of Winter Storm Uri and is considering rescheduling cargoes to long-term buyers to accommodate a spike in US gas demand since the onset of this week’s massive winter storm.

Exuberance in adding new LNG capacity makes the industry vulnerable to repeating the coal industry’s mistakes in 2010. Yet, consequences of an extended oversupply will be “more severe for the LNG industry as it is highly capital-intensive,” analysts warn.

High spot LNG prices and subdued demand from industry made China’s LNG import plunge by more than 20% in the first quarter of this year. Fast build-out of liquefaction capacity in the US, Canada and Qatar will ease market tightness from 2026, fostering robust demand growth in Asia’s price-sensitive markets, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts.

Bangladesh’s state-run gas company RPGCL has issued a tender to buy two further spot LNG cargoes by mid-August. Bid submission deadline is on July 7.

The American Petroleum Institute (API), whose members include Exxon Mobil, Chevron and Cheniere Energy, is calling on President Trump to exempt LNG tankers from a new rule. The novel regulation mandates producers to move 1% of their exports on US-built ships starting from April 2028, and that share would rise to 15% from April 2047 onwards.

The policy sent shockwaves through the industry when announced by the US Trade Representative on April 17. In a first response, API told the U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and National Energy Dominance Council Chair Doug Burgum the ruling would risk to counteract progress of the Trump administration towards unleashing US LNG sales.

Individual US LNG vendors who do not comply with the rule risk to lose their export licenses, even though the percentages apply to the overall shipping industry and to vessels that LNG exporters do not own and control, API warns.

Quest to get rule abolished

The industry group has rushed to foster closer relation with USTR in a quest to get the rule amended, if not abolished. The aim is to ensure “feasible and durable policies that benefit consumers and advance American energy dominance," said Aaron Padilla, API's vice president of corporate policy.

Today, there are 792 LNG carriers in operation around the world, according to the AXS Marine shipping consultancy. Out of that total, the number of ships built in South Korea and Japan is 703 combined. Some 58 LNG carriers were built in China – and just five come from US shipyards and these 1970-era ships are laid up and currently not in operation, AXS Marine specified.

Unfeasible deadline

There is no way that US shipyards can churn out vessels fast enough to meet the deadline set by USTR and the Trump administration, market participants warn. "There are no such vessels in existence today, and building them would take decades, making compliance impossible for the industry," Charlie Riedl, executive director at the Center for LNG, told Reuters in a statement.

In fact, it would take five years to build one LNG carrier at either of the two American shipyards that have sufficiently long docks to build such a vessel. API CEO Mike Sommers hence urged the Trump administration “to exempt crude oil and refined product imports and exports - consistent with this Administration's approach to exempt these same products from baseline and reciprocal tariffs.”

Greater utilisation of India’s fleet of gas-fired power plants could accelerate LNG imports to bridge the gap left by marginal domestic gas production increases, the International Energy Agency (IEA) finds. Supportive policies by the Indian government could tilt the national power gen mix more towards cleaner-burning natural gas and hydrogen in the coming years.

Michael Lewis, CEO of Germany’s largest gas importer Uniper, welcomes plans by U.S. President Trump to expand oil & gas production as well as LNG exports. He urged German industry to use more ‘blue hydrogen,’ made via steam methane reforming, into their energy transitions plans, rather than focussing solely on ‘green hydrogen,' derived from renewable energy.

Scepticism abounds as to whether US LNG exports projects will gain traction following President Trump’s executive order to resume approvals for LNG exports to non-FTA countries. Analysts see this move as a “reshuffling” of which pre-FID projects are most likely to be sanctioned – not as an actual change to the number of FIDs.

“US LNG projects compete in a global market, and each additional FID draws on additional, higher-cost supplies, eroding their economic competitiveness,” commented Rystad Energy’s senior vice president, Oil & Gas Research, Amber McCullagh.

To-date, American LNG projects largely rely on feedgas from the Haynesville shale, where the remaining Tier 1 inventory is limited and ownership of acreage is increasingly consolidated among the largest operators. Appalachia shale, in contrast, is home to the most untapped gas reserves – but moving these molecules to the coast for liquefaction and export is deemed “prohibitively expensive.”

“Trump is likely to push for permitting reforms, but such changes would require an act of Congress, which saw some bipartisan interest in the last session,” she noted, indicating the actual revision or withdrawal of former President Biden’s pause on approving non-FTA export licenses will be limited. Biden’s action halted momentum on several projects that had previously been close to taking final investment decision which sparked fierce criticism from the industry.

Outlook of gas-fired generation uncertain

Regardless of Trump’s rush to declare a ‘National Energy Emergency’ on his first day in office, analysts caution the President’s “drill, baby, drill” mantra overestimates the industry’s willingness to prioritize growth over investor returns in light of Tier 1 inventory depletion in core oil basins after 2030.

Speeding up permitting on federal land may incentivise some operators to produce more oil and gas, though volume growth is expected to be marginal and mostly used as feedgas for LNG export projects. Gas-fired power generation, on the other hand, may not benefit much as domestic gas prices are unlikely to recede sufficiently to make burning gas more competitive than unabated coal in some areas, let alone renewables.

“Trump signalled he would block new offshore wind leases, but these are unlikely to meaningfully impact the US generation mix,” McCullgah commented, adding: “Removing subsidies for wind and solar generation would have a more significant impact, but such a move would also require Congressional approval, and Republicans’ margins are very small in the House of Representatives.”

Nontheless, momentum in gas-fired generation is already in place, so rising domestic fossil fuel demand is likely – especially since utilities struggle to meet rising electricity demand from data centers and e-vehicles, and are hard pressed to provide sufficient dispatchable generation for balancing power.