LNG

Bridging the cost gap between green and grey hydrogen will require public grants and operating subsidies – impacting LNG demand growth. Displacing half of current fossil-based hydrogen (H2) with low-emissions alternatives would reduce associated gas needs by up to 150 bcm per year, equivalent to 6% of global gas demand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) finds.

“The ships are ready, the fuels are missing,” Acceleron Industries summarizes the state of decarbonizing maritime transport. Investment is lagging as LNG offers higher returns than green hydrogen or ammonia.

Plans for Germany’s green hydrogen economy face serious delays due to uncertain future pricing and lagging infrastructure build-out, e.g. conversion of LNG import terminals and gas-fuelled power plants. Investment is slowly forthcoming: of the government’s targeted 10 GW new electrolyser capacity by 2030, only 1.6 GW has been instated so far.

“The hydrogen market is not scaling at the speed needed,” said Kerstin Andreae, chair of the German Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW) when presenting a new report co-authored by the consultancy EY.

“Investors and developers need clear rules, support for infrastructure, and reliable pricing signals to move forward,” she stressed. In fact, green hydrogen, produced by electrolysis using renewable electricity, made up just 0.5% of total hydrogen output in Germany in 2023 – while the vast majority is still made from fossil fuels, primarily natural gas.

The ‘Energy Transition Progress Monitor 2025’ warns that slow progress on key hydrogen infrastructure and weak investment conditions are stalling the ramp-up of green hydrogen. The report, published on Monday, cites a “significant investment hurdle” caused by regulatory uncertainty, infrastructure gaps, and market risks.

Industrial demand declines

Fossil-based generation of both hydrogen and electricity is becoming a new phenomenon amid weakening industrial demand, particularly in key sectors such as refining, ammonia, methanol, and chlorine production. Despite these setbacks Germany is on track to meet its 2030 climate targets, though analysts stressed shortfalls remain in the transport and heating sectors.

The incoming federal government faces “tremendous pressure” to deliver results, BDEW underlined. Key policy priorities include speeding up permitting for renewable projects, aligning grid expansion with energy demand, and designing a new electricity market framework that rewards flexibility and low-carbon solutions.

Industry groups, meanwhile, want the government to reinvigorate hydrogen efforts. BDEW and more than a dozen other trade associations called for a “restart” in bilateral energy ties aimed at forming a European hydrogen alliance. The groups called for an overhaul of EU rules on green and low-carbon hydrogen, the rapid buildout of cross-border hydrogen infrastructure, and harmonized certification standards across the bloc.

A close partnership with France, they argued, could “inject decisive momentum” into Europe’s hydrogen strategy. Signatories to the joint statement included BDEW, the chemical industry association VCI, the automotive group VDA, the local utility association VKU, and the European hydrogen lobby Hydrogen Europe.

Though Germany must phase out fossil gas by 2045 to become climate neutral, there is no clear roadmap for exiting natural gas in the power sector and the future role of LNG, the International Energy Agency (IEA) criticises. The German ‘LNG Acceleration Act,’ for once, stipulates an end of LNG imports by 2043 when terminals should be converted to hydrogen.

To meet that timeline, substantial investment in Germany’s traditional gas infrastructure would be required, analysts pointed out.

For repurposing LNG regas terminals to accommodate hydrogen, the key question is temperature. Methane liquefies at −160°C and hydrogen −253°C. The European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG) recommends terminal operators to carry out a risk assessment of LNG in order to analyse the impact on the process conditions, properties of mixtures and consequences.

As for storage, Germany has the largest gas storage capacity in the EU with around 40 gas storage facilities holding more than 24 bcm. Up to 1% hydrogen per volume can be blended into an average gas storage facility – while a pipeline that currently carries mainly natural gas can transport about three times as many cubic meters of hydrogen, an ENTSOG-G study finds.

Key gas pipelines in Germany include Nord Stream 1, which used to transport Russian gas through the Baltic Sea; the Yamal-Europe Pipeline, now primarily used to transport natural gas from Germany to Poland; the Trans Europa Naturgas Pipeline, connecting the German and Dutch gas grids; and the Europipe I and II pipelines, which import natural gas from Norway’s North Sea fields into Germany.

Clear timeframe needed for gas-to-H2 conversions

Looking at the power sector, there is currently no roadmap for exiting natural gas in the power sector. Unlike coal, no timeframe has been set out, though the target of 100% fossil-free generation by 2035 indicated the need for speedy gas-to-hydrogen conversions – or utilities face the risk of plant closures.

Uncertainty about tenders for hydrogen-ready power stations or a future capacity market is has made Germany’s largest utilities to withhold investment in new power stations, which, in turn, risks to push up wholesale power prices.

The IEA hence urges the incoming coalition government to clarify the timing of a future gas exit. Timeframes for mandated hydrogen conversions would provide industry with the certainty needed to invest in the required import infrastructure (for both natural gas and hydrogen) and industrial clusters.

Electrification in focus first, hydrogen and CCUS second

The industry in Germany is struggling to stay competitive in the face of rising fuel costs and high electricity prices. To mitigate the risk of deindustrialisation, IEA analysts recommend policymakers in Berlin should concentrate efforts on promoting energy efficiency and electrification” in the short run. The rising adoption of hydrogen and post-combustion carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS) are seen as e viable pathways in the longer term.

For now, Germany’s dependency on natural gas continues “without a clear end in sight,” analysts criticise the government’s failure to set out clear policies on how to enact the clean energy transition. The outgoing government’s Power Plant Strategy attempted to tender 12.5 GW of new natural gas-fired power plant capacity that could later run on hydrogen.

“In this way, the construction of new hydrogen-ready gas-fired capacity could avoid a fossil fuel lock-in that is not at odds with the electricity generation target, as long as the fuel switch takes place on time,” analysts acknowledged but called for more clarity around the viability of hydrogen-ready gas plants.

Gas peaking plants are believed to keep playing a vital role in grid balancing beyond 2035. But other flexibility options, notably industrial demand response, storage and interconnections, should be encouraged as these “may displace the need for additional generation capacity,” analysts argue. The IEA hence urges the German government to “move ahead with the future electricity market design proposals, including a capacity mechanism.”

LNG demand in Japan’s power sector is expected to rise by more than 10% to about 74 million tons by 2040, the government forecasts factoring in a slow build-out of renewables. Unless wind and solar power capacity expands substantially, or the cost of hydrogen and ammonia falls sharply – Japan’s gas demand is bound to increase.

Michael Lewis, CEO of Germany’s largest gas importer Uniper, welcomes plans by U.S. President Trump to expand oil & gas production as well as LNG exports. He urged German industry to use more ‘blue hydrogen,’ made via steam methane reforming, into their energy transitions plans, rather than focussing solely on ‘green hydrogen,' derived from renewable energy.

2025 will see hydrogen gain traction as an alternative – potentially rival – fuel to LNG as the U.S. will become the leader in blue hydrogen production, while electrolysers made-in-China drive competition and spur investments in ammonia. Addressing the mismatch between FIDs and offtake contracts will, however, be crucial to scaling hydrogen for power generation and as a fuel for shipping.

Sembcorp Industries has entered a Sale and Purchase Agreement (SPA) with Chevron to import up to 0.6 million tons of LNG per annum over ten years, starting from 2028. Sembcorp has two gas-fired cogeneration plants, producing 1,219 MW of electricity and 1,000 tonnes of steam per hour on Jurong Island, where a hydrogen-ready plant is also under development.

Verso Energy has reserved a site for a new plant to produce hydrogen (H2) and biogenic synthetic fuels at the Port of Oulu, in northern Finland. Similar production sites exist in various parts of France, and Verso's synfuels production process combines green H2 with carbon dixoide (CO2) recovered from nearby paper and pulp mills.

Electricity in Finland is among the cheapest in Europe: In the first half of 2024, the price of electricity for non-household customers in Finland was the lowest in the European Union at just €0.0939  per kilowatt-hour (€/kWh), given that most of it is derived from hydropower plants.

Using this electricity to produce H2 and related biogenic synfuels is becoming a lucrative business, not least because offtaker are situated very close to northern Finland - just a short shipping distance away across the Baltic Sea in Germany, Poland and Denmark, as well as in the Netherlands and the UK.

Cheap electricity, large talent pool

Asked why Verso chose Oulo as a location for its latest hydrogen plant, CEO Antoine Huard said "the region around the Finish port town is attractive because it provides an abundance of affordable renewable energy and biogenic carbon dioxide.”

In addition, experienced chemical researchers at Oulo University alongside large R&D investments in the area, ensure a “sufficient talent pool,” the Verso CEO said, and this offers the French company potential customers and subcontractors.

And last but not least, the Port of Oulu, with its rail and road links, provides good connections to the rest of the world.

H2-derivative projects already set up

Several other hydrogen production and H2 derivative projects have already been initiated in the greater Oulu region: Gasgrid Finland is planning to establish a hydrogen transport infrastructure to connect Oulu’s hydrogen production with the rest of Finland and other countries in northern Europe.

Verso Energy is hence keen to get its project off the ground, though Mr Huard cautioned the latest “land reservation is only a preliminary decision,” – a final investment decision (FID) will be taken at a later stage.

Europe's latest episode of dark and almost wind-still weather – dubbed Dunkelflaute – has once again highlighted the importance of flexible gas generation. Low wind speeds since early November reduced wind power output by 40% yoy, or nearly 15 TWh compared to November 2024, IEA figures show and that shortfall was largely offset by flexible gas power plants ramping up output by 65% yoy, or 13 TWh.