Many US gas producers are hedging their output, as a cold winter combined with soaring LNG feedgas demand could drive the Jan-26 contract above $5.00/MMBtu. The Henry Hub Cal-26 strip could - under these conditions - jump above $4.25/MMBtu, Energy Aspects forecasts.

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Traded LNG markets are hedged between two risks – winter weather and further shipments from Russia’s sanctioned Arctic LNG 2. Six more vessels are headed to China with estimated arrivals between now and early October, Energy Aspect understands.

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Financial, not physical trade is amplifying price swings at the Dutch TTF as Russian gas exports to Europe are unlikely to return. Hedge funds had to cut their positions after higher price volatility increased their value at risk (VaR), though analysts reckon there are many CTA buying levels starting in the low €40s/MWh.

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