Gas prices at the Dutch TTF, Europe’s benchmark gas trading hub, could average €90-100 per Megawatt-hour (MWh) if the shut-in of Ras Laffan and suspension of Qatari LNG shipment continues for the next three months, an analysts’ poll finds.

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Buyers in the EU have been snapping up all LNG from Russia’s Yamal terminal they can secure, just month before a full EU ban on Russian gas exports will take effect at the start of 2027.

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Despite a 52% surge at Europe’s TTF gas trading hub, price-sensitive Asian buyers will bear the brunt of supply constraints – rather than premium markets like Europe that are willing to bid aggressively for cargoes.

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Venture Global LNG has agreed to sell about 0.5 mtpa of US LNG to commodity trader Trafigura for five years starting in 2026. The contract highlights how traders are locking in flexible US LNG volumes to brace for the risk of a protracted halt of shipments out of Qatar.

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Qatar’s stock market fell sharply after QatarEnergy announced it had suspended LNG output after drone attacks attributed to Iran hit facilities in Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial City. Crude oil prices soared 13% to over $82 while prices at Europe’s gas trading benchmark, the Dutch TTF surged by more nearly 40%, underscoring how tightly integrated global power‑generation markets are with LNG shipments from the Arab Gulf region.

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China has suspended LNG imports from the United States for 40 days in a tit-for-tat trade war, forcing traders to reroute shipments. No US LNG cargo is currently on route to China, Kpler data shows, and China Resources Gas International’s just secured alternative supply from Australia through a deal with Woodside.

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Trump trade policies could deeply impact global gas markets: “His opening salvo in a US-China trade war has been fired, with 10% tariffs on Chinese goods and retaliatory 15% tariffs on US LNG, while his stance on Russia remains unclear," Rystad Energy commented. Closer to home, Trump's 10% tariff on Canadian gas drives up prices, squeezes profit margins of smaller producers and could potentially lead to production cuts and delayed investments.

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