LNG

Bridging the cost gap between green and grey hydrogen will require public grants and operating subsidies – impacting LNG demand growth. Displacing half of current fossil-based hydrogen (H2) with low-emissions alternatives would reduce associated gas needs by up to 150 bcm per year, equivalent to 6% of global gas demand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) finds.

Plans for Germany’s green hydrogen economy face serious delays due to uncertain future pricing and lagging infrastructure build-out, e.g. conversion of LNG import terminals and gas-fuelled power plants. Investment is slowly forthcoming: of the government’s targeted 10 GW new electrolyser capacity by 2030, only 1.6 GW has been instated so far.

“The hydrogen market is not scaling at the speed needed,” said Kerstin Andreae, chair of the German Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW) when presenting a new report co-authored by the consultancy EY.

“Investors and developers need clear rules, support for infrastructure, and reliable pricing signals to move forward,” she stressed. In fact, green hydrogen, produced by electrolysis using renewable electricity, made up just 0.5% of total hydrogen output in Germany in 2023 – while the vast majority is still made from fossil fuels, primarily natural gas.

The ‘Energy Transition Progress Monitor 2025’ warns that slow progress on key hydrogen infrastructure and weak investment conditions are stalling the ramp-up of green hydrogen. The report, published on Monday, cites a “significant investment hurdle” caused by regulatory uncertainty, infrastructure gaps, and market risks.

Industrial demand declines

Fossil-based generation of both hydrogen and electricity is becoming a new phenomenon amid weakening industrial demand, particularly in key sectors such as refining, ammonia, methanol, and chlorine production. Despite these setbacks Germany is on track to meet its 2030 climate targets, though analysts stressed shortfalls remain in the transport and heating sectors.

The incoming federal government faces “tremendous pressure” to deliver results, BDEW underlined. Key policy priorities include speeding up permitting for renewable projects, aligning grid expansion with energy demand, and designing a new electricity market framework that rewards flexibility and low-carbon solutions.

Industry groups, meanwhile, want the government to reinvigorate hydrogen efforts. BDEW and more than a dozen other trade associations called for a “restart” in bilateral energy ties aimed at forming a European hydrogen alliance. The groups called for an overhaul of EU rules on green and low-carbon hydrogen, the rapid buildout of cross-border hydrogen infrastructure, and harmonized certification standards across the bloc.

A close partnership with France, they argued, could “inject decisive momentum” into Europe’s hydrogen strategy. Signatories to the joint statement included BDEW, the chemical industry association VCI, the automotive group VDA, the local utility association VKU, and the European hydrogen lobby Hydrogen Europe.

Michael Lewis, CEO of Germany’s largest gas importer Uniper, welcomes plans by U.S. President Trump to expand oil & gas production as well as LNG exports. He urged German industry to use more ‘blue hydrogen,’ made via steam methane reforming, into their energy transitions plans, rather than focussing solely on ‘green hydrogen,' derived from renewable energy.

2025 will see hydrogen gain traction as an alternative – potentially rival – fuel to LNG as the U.S. will become the leader in blue hydrogen production, while electrolysers made-in-China drive competition and spur investments in ammonia. Addressing the mismatch between FIDs and offtake contracts will, however, be crucial to scaling hydrogen for power generation and as a fuel for shipping.

LNG is a controversial topic in Germany: Green paint was thrown at the back entrance of Berlin’s luxury Hotel Adlon at the opening day of the Global LNG Summit while Stefan Wenzel, state secretary to Germany’s economy minister Robert Habeck spoke just prior to a panel with top executives from Cheniere Energy, ADNOC Gas, Shell and bp.

German energy company Uniper has postponed its target to invest €8 billion in the green energy transformation by 2030, citing a lack of demand for green hydrogen, CEO Michael Lewis told business daily FAZ. “As things stand, there are hardly any major customers who buy green hydrogen,” he said, noting Uniper has to “step on the brakes a little.”

Uniper now wants to reach its targeted investment volume “by the early 2030s” and focus on project “that make the greatest contribution from a strategic and financial perspective.” The Germain utility reiterated its aim to exit coal by 2029, though reaching its target of 80% renewables would become “very difficult,” Lewis conceded.

The British boss of the energy group Uniper urged the German government to introduce a lasting system of incentive for a certain volume of green hydrogen – alike the renewable support system. “There is a large gap between the price of natural gas and that of blue or even green hydrogen,” Lewis said, suggesting; “The state would have to agree to close this gap.”

The German coalition government aspires for hydrogen, especially the one produced via electrolysis from wind and solar power, to play a vital role in decarbonising the steel-making sector or the chemical industry as well as the transport sector. But hurdles for implementing and scaling up the technology are manifold, both from a technological and cost perspective.

The cost for storage and distribution may well make green hydrogen a “prohibitively expensive abatement strategy across many major sectors,” researchers from Harvard University warned. Listening to such warnings, Uniper revised its hydrogen strategy and other energy companies eye similar steps to slow down their exposure to a still expensive new fuel type.