LNG

The number of LNG vehicles on Chinese roads has almost tripled since 2019 as LNG fuel costs have fallen below those of diesel, offsetting the higher price of LNG-powered trucks. Shell China's VP Mobility, Hu Chuan pointed out “LNG has become a strategic energy pillar for China, thanks to its cost advantages and lower carbon footprint."

Though India has not yet mandated the dispatch of gas peaking power stations, analysts see upside risk to LNG-burn following a government tender to purchase 1.8 Gigawatt of gas-fuelled generation between April and October. Torrent Power was awarded 1.35 GW, with Kashipur Gama and Kondapalli Lanco taking the rest of the tendered capacity.

Energy Aspects understands the three power producers will receive a fuel price linked to the CME west India LNG prices.

“This power tender alone translates to LNG demand of 0.12 million tons per month over the second quarter of 2025, assuming a 50% load factor and 50% thermal efficiency,” analysts explained, stressing:

“This demand will be price insensitive, as LNG is effectively subsidised by the government.”

Early heatwaves have propelled up electricity demand in India to record levels. The average load factor in March reached 211.3 GW, the highest level ever recorded and a 12.4 GW rise year-on-year. The amount of cooling degree days was 9% above the 10-year norm, but analysts anticipate Indian CCDs will be a staggering 19% above the 10-year average over the next two weeks.

Should this prolonged heatwave materialise, India’s power load jump to new record highs averaging 227 GW over the second quarter, up by 8 GW compared to Q2-23.

Though the LNG tenders are bound to increase gas-burn, coal and solar generation will continue to meet most incremental power demand. In March, coal and solar generation increased by 8.2 GW y/y and 4.9 GW y/y, respectively, while gas generation dropped by 1.3 GW y/y due to peaking power demand.

Upholding a bullish view, analysts said: “We see some upside risks to our Indian LNG demand forecast if the government mandates gas fired plants to run to prevent load shedding and ensure an uninterrupted power supply.”

LNG use for transport is driving infrastructure investment in China, where the fleet of LNG-fuelled trucks nearly tripled over the past five years. Government data indicates, however, utilities liquefy enough domestic gas to meet trucking demand – while battery electric trucks are about to outcompete LNG-fuelled ones.

“China’s surge in LNG trucks will not last” and is likely to ease by 2030, Wood Mackenzie reckons. As battery technologies advance, electric vehicles are expected to displace LNG as the main threat to diesel – and demand for the dirty fuel is hence forecast fall from 2.3 million b/d in 2023 to 0.7 million b/d by 2050.

“LNG-powered trucks are gaining in popularity, but should only be seen as a bridging solution,” said Shiqing Xia, WoodMac consultant for Oils and Chemicals. “Investment in electric or hydrogen fuel cell trucks to respond to future market demands will not only help to meet environmental requirements, but could also give companies a long-term competitive advantage.”

Affordability issues

In India, the affordability of LNG is a main stumbling block – both for burning imported gas to generate electricity and also for combusting LNG as a transport fuel. The fertilizer, for once, consumes substantial LNG volumes in India though this demand largely hinges on government subsidies, handed out to keep low consumer prices.

Imported gas still costs too dear for the world’s emerging economies, Bloomberg finds, but analysts are optimistic that a supply surge starting from 2027 will bring down fuel costs in Asia.

Analysts question Shell’s bullish case for LNG market growth over the next 15 years. This year, the company increased its demand expectations to between 630 and 718 mtpa by 2040, some 1-5% higher than last year’s projection.

Dwindling demand for imported fuels

Yet, LNG demand has remained limited in sectors that do not receive fiscal support. According to IEEA analysis, global LNG prices would have to fall by half to compete in power generation, where gas provides less than 2% of the electricity mix.

“With the exception of China, natural gas consumption has grown mainly in countries that produce enough gas to either be self-sufficient or net exporters, like the U.S. By contrast, gas demand has tended to fall in markets that require large import volumes, like Europe and Japan,” IEEFA’s Sam Reynolds and Christopher Doleman commented.

Looking at Vietnam, downside risks get more pronounced: The country’s latest Power Development Plan initially targeted 22 gigawatts of LNG-fired power capacity by 2030, but a recent draft revision lowered the target to 18 GW due to slow progress.

Only one LNG plant with 1.6 GW of capacity has secured a power purchase agreement to date, and analysts fear that very few other projects may be operational before 2030. Factoring in fuel costs, it’s worth noting that Vietnam’s wind and solar generation now exceeds gas-fired power, which dwindled 45% over the past ten years.

Kpler data shows that the volume of LNG traded in 2024 grew by its lowest level since 2012 which makes analysts questions oil majors’ bullish stance on global gas demand. In fact, Shell’s latest LNG Outlook departs from previous arguments: It downplays LNG’s role in the power sector and no longer emphasizes claims that LNG can displace coal in Asia. Instead, Shell argues that data centres and AI will drive long-term LNG demand, though this remains uncertain.

Construction of an onshore LNG import terminal at Brunsbüttel is more expensive than expected, forcing Germany to support it with another €200 million in federal funding – on top of the €740 million initially committed. Broadcaster NDR reports total costs now surpass €1,5 billion, instead of €1.3 billion, with private investors having to shoulder most of the overrun.