OPEC of natural gas forecasts demand surge and around $8.7 trillion of investment expected through to 2050
The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), the OPEC of natural gas and LNG based in Qatar, has published its Annual Outlook outlining supply and demand forecasts and expects total upstream and midstream investments to reach $8.7 trillion by 2050.
In its sixth edition, the Outlook finds that natural gas can become the fuel of choice in satisfying the growing world energy needs, addressing climate change and improving air quality.
“The GECF Global Gas Outlook 2050 underscores that investment in natural gas is critical for the stability of global energy systems,” declared Mohamed Hamel, Secretary General of the GECF.
“Environmental policies are a key driver of the projections contained in the Outlook. In this context, whilst upholding that natural gas is the cleanest of hydrocarbon fuels, the Outlook explores the state of technologies that will make it even cleaner,” added Hamel.
The GECF comprises 19 countries who together represent 71 percent of the world’s proven gas reserves, 43 percent of its marketed production, 52 percent of pipeline gas and 58 percent of LNG exports.
Asia-Pacific demand
“Global energy demand will rise by 29 percent over the next three decades, with the majority of that increase emanating from growing economies in Asia Pacific and Africa,” said the report.
“Natural gas demand will rise by 46 percent from 3,840 billion cubic metres in 2020 to 5,625 Bcm in 2050. The Asia-Pacific region will represent the largest growth share,” it added.
“The power generation sector will take a frontline place, accounting for 42 percent of the total increase in gas demand. The transport sector and blue hydrogen generation will emerge as significant new areas of gas demand expansion,” stated the GECF.
The Middle East, principally Qatar, will deliver 32 percent of the global gas supply increase and there will be a growing role for deepwater and unconventional natural gas resource developments to meet demand.
The global gas trade is forecast to increase by 45 percent by 2050 and become more integrated and interrelated through LNG expansion.
Trade in natural gas is seen expanding by 1.5 percent per annum between 2020 and 2050 to reach 1,815 Bcm and account for a third of global gas demand.
The report forecasts that LNG will overtake pipeline trade around 2030 to reach 845 million tonnes (1,150 Bcm).
The GECF has 11 full members, including seven LNG producers: Algeria, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, Qatar, Russia, Trinidad and Tobago, along with pipeline producers Bolivia, Iran, Libya and Venezuela.
It also has eight observer-status member countries. They include five LNG nations: Angola, Malaysia, Norway, Peru and the United Arab Emirates, along with Azerbaijan, Iraq, and Kazakhstan.
US may be on track to becoming largest LNG exporter as shale revolution gets a second wind
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