LNG

European gas prices at the Dutch TTF may need to top €100/MWh to attract enough flexible US LNG cargoes to refill storages ahead of the winter, Goldman Sachs analysts said.

Gasunie has warned the Netherlands will not meet its 115 TWh gas storage target for this winter. Storage is currently just 44-45% full, the lowest since 2009, as utilities shy away from buying LNG at current high prices.

Norway's energy minister Terje Aasland has insisted on the country’s sovereign rights to drill in the Barents Sea to sustain oil and LNG exports at current levels until 2035, even though the EU is debating a moratorium.

First commercial shale gas from Australia’s Beetaloo Basin is on track to flow in September from Tamboran Resources’ Shenandoah South drilling site, unlocking one of the world’s largest undeveloped gas resources and potentially underpin new LNG export capacity.

The September Henry Hub contract settled 8.6 cents higher at $2.759 per million British thermal units on Wednesday, according to CME data. Analysts anticipate further price rises as weather forecasts turned hotter across the southern and western part of the US. Eli Rubin, senior energy analyst at EBW Analytics Group, said peak demand on the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system could set a new record this week. The grid operator forecast demand would exceed its 91.089-gigawatt (GW) record on each day from August 20 through August 24, with the potential to rise by almost 1 GW above the previous peak later in the period. Houston temperatures are expected to average about 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 degrees Celsius) this entire week through August 23, roughly 5 F above normal, according to AccuWeather data.

Global gas demand is on course for a 4% fall, with damage to gas processing facilities curbing fertiliser production in the Middle East and high LNG prices accelerating gas-to-coal switching in Asia, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts.

Record US natural gas production and sustained sub-$3.50/MMBtu Henry Hub prices are set to strengthen the economics of both LNG export expansions and new gas-fired power projects and, even as global demand tightens.

With five US LNG export projects set to start operations and ramp up production by the end of 2027, the country’s total gas export capacity is forecast to grow nearly 30%. According to EIA data, exports are bound to rise 1.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2026 to average 17.0 Bcf/d and increase by an additional 1.5 Bcf/d) in 2027.

Argentina’s state-controlled YPF, together with partners Eni and XRG, has submitted an application to enrol the Argentina LNG project in the country’s Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI). The $51 billion project will export liquefied natural gas from the Vaca Muerta shale formation, with operations targeted to begin in 2031.

Through 2030, global electricity consumption will grow at least 2.5 times as fast as overall energy demand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts, with emerging Asian economies accounting for near 80% of incremental electricity and related LNG demand to fuel gas peaking power stations.