LNG

Atlantic freight rates for spot LNG cargoes have fallen to a seasonal low of $20,000 per day, down $31 over the last fortnight, opening the arbitrage window for US LNG heading to Europe rather than Asia. Several LNG charterers have fixed vessels below round-trip economics due to a lack of fresh enquiry for Atlantic cargoes from Pacific Basin buyers, while shipowners are seen to be reluctant to ballast vessels westward.

Long-term LNG charters – not spot cargoes – are buyers’ favourite, once again, as they provide greater protection against freight rate spikes and shipping disruptions. This trend could tighten global LNG carrier availability for years to come.

LNG demand growth east of Suez is expected to exceed regionals supply, so Asian buyers are looking to pull some flexible Atlantic cargoes to balance. Energy Aspects is bullish against JKM-TTF spreads over the balance of 2025, though call on cross-basin is lower this year as contractual term cover in the top five Asian markets – China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and India – has fallen to 82% in 2025.

Continuing weak demand and excess tonnage are set to depress LNG shipping earnings in the near term, Drewry analysts forecast. Yet there's a silver lining further out, as rates will rebound over anticipated vessel shortages once an array of proposed liquefaction projects start operation.